Posts filed under “Employment”
David Rosenberg made a point in his note Monday that I don’t think went quite far enough, or at least needs a bit more color:
Rosie then showed the chart below (the Haver Analytics version of it, anyway), which he dubbed “Employment Less Financials in Private Sector.” In St. Louis Fred-speak, that would be USPRIV – USFIRE:
We can probably agree with Dave that many jobs of the last cycle, particularly in finance, were indeed due to “obvious unsustainable credit bubble.”
Now, all that said, here are some numbers out of the above chart:
Trough was July 2003 at 100,230.
Subsequent peak was Jan 2008 at 107,393.
That’s an annualized growth rate, by my calculations, of 1.52%.
Subsequent trough was February 2010 at 99,126
We’re at the (ongoing) peak at 107,003
That’s an annualized growth rate of 2.02%
Point here being that we are currently running at a 2.02% more naturally, if you will, than the 1.52% rate which itself was inflated by artificial, credit-bubble-induced hiring, mostly in the finance sector. And we are indeed within striking distance of eclipsing the January 2008 high within the next couple of months.
@TBPInvictus here. In yet another stunning display of journalistic malpractice, Terry Jeffrey put out the following piece after last Friday’s NFP release: Because it suited his (political) purpose, Jeffrey jumped on the Household Survey; looking at the Establishment Survey would not have provided such a dramatic headline. Indeed, it would have provided, for…Read More
Source: WSJ The Labor market continues to improve. Last week Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 204,000 new positions created, and adjustments to prior months data were upward. But the gains are not all they are cracked up to be. The jobs recovery has not been evenly distributed. The beneficiaries of the economic recovery have…Read More
One of the things I think Bloomberg should own are the deep dive, finance related interactive graphics. They can cover economics, investing and business with the data and firepower to just crush this sort of work. Here is the first example of what is hopefully the first of many crazy cool infographics: click for…Read More
Today, I want to discuss why the Employment Situation report is the single most over-hyped, over-analyzed, over-emphasized, least-understood economic releases known to mankind. It is also one of least useful economic data points where investors are concerned. Long-time readers must bear with me, as they have heard this too many times before. But to new…Read More