Posts filed under “Employment”
Okay, strap in for yet another tirade on why you should (for the most part) pay very little attention to the monthly Non Farm Payroll data, also know as the Employment Situation. Its hype to usefulness ratio is abysmally low.
Long time readers know this is a peeve of mine (See list of prior articles below). For newer readers, here is the reasoning behind my disdain.
The first has to do with the idea of modeling the real word via assembled data. What you end up with is some form of artificial creation that bears only a passing resemblance to the complexity of the real world. That would not be such a problem, if only you humans remembered what the great professor George E. P. Box advised us: “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
The usefulness of a model that is wrong is that we can into what us useful and ignore what is wrong. And we know from each month’s revisions that the initial read is off, often by a substantial amount. It’s a noisy series, subject to many errors and subsequent corrections.
From Vizynary: Approximately 7.1 million Americans moved to another state in 2012. That’s over 2.2% of the U.S. population. The United States has a long history of people picking up and moving their families to other parts of the country, in search of better livelihoods. That same spirit of mobility, a willingness to uproot oneself,…Read More
I have, for many years, been a regular reader of David Rosenberg. Back when he was Merrill Lynch’s chief economist, to more recently at Canada’s Gluskin Sheff, I enjoy his daily “Breakfast with Dave.” Sometimes, it is because we disagree, and I am looking for an intelligent challenge my pre-existing notions. Other times, it is…Read More
From Quartz: While executives at many top companies make top dollar, the typical employee at corporations like McDonald’s, Gap, Target, and Walmart still earns minimum wage, or something barely above it. The disparity is alarming. CEOs of American companies now earn some 270 times what the average worker makes. Source: Quartz
Source: FRED Here is an interesting question: How does the present employment rate compare with the prior peak? According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, if we compare the prior recent peak of 139,143,000 of November 2007 with last month’s figure of 137,942,000 (I used non-seasonally-adjusted because it’s November to November), we are…Read More
@TBPInvictus here: David Rosenberg made a point in his note Monday that I don’t think went quite far enough, or at least needs a bit more color: Rosie then showed the chart below (the Haver Analytics version of it, anyway), which he dubbed “Employment Less Financials in Private Sector.” In St. Louis Fred-speak, that…Read More