Posts filed under “Employment”

74 Months to Employment Recovery (and counting)

click for larger graphic
Jan 08 recovery severe downturns.png
Source: NYT

 

Floyd Norris discusses an upcoming milestone: A full recovery in employment to numerical (but not percentage) employment in the US:

“This seems likely to be the month when a new high is finally reached, ending a period that featured the largest drop in employment and the slowest recovery of any period since the Great Depression.

In February, the government reported last week, 115,848,000 people were employed by the private sector, just 129,000 fewer than the peak set in January 2008, just after what became known as the Great Recession began. That is well below the average gain in recent months.”

Several factors account for this: The enormous deleveraging process following a credit crisis is never good for either wages or job creation. Add to that the many ill advised cuts in state, local and federal hiring, and you have the near record length of time until the economy recovers its precrisis employment level.

 

Continues here

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Category: Employment, Taxes and Policy, Think Tank

Last Chance to Blame Weak Job Growth on Weather

With Spring nearly upon us, today may be the last chance for excuse-makers to blame this winter’s awful weather for poor job creation. Consensus estimates are that Payrolls increased 149,000 in February after a mediocre gain of 113,000 in January. What is to blame for this weak ongoing job creation? Is it the Fed’s fault?…Read More

Category: Employment, Really, really bad calls

Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low?

Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low? Liberty Street Economics Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa     Fluctuations in unemployment are mostly driven by fluctuations in the job-finding prospects of unemployed workers—except at the onset of recessions, according to various research papers (see, for example, Shimer [2005, 2012] and Elsby, Hobijn,…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low?

Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low? Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa Liberty Street Economics Feburary 19, 2014       Fluctuations in unemployment are mostly driven by fluctuations in the job-finding prospects of unemployed workers—except at the onset of recessions, according to various research papers (see, for example, Shimer [2005,…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

By John Robertson and Ellyn Terry A recent Wall Street Journal blog post caught our attention. In particular, the following claim: It’s not size that matters—at least when it comes to job creation. The age of the company is a bigger factor. This observation is something we have also been thinking a lot about over…Read More

Category: Employment, Research, Think Tank

The Rise and Fall of Labor Force Participation in the U.S.

Category: Employment, Think Tank

The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth

The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich Liberty Street Economics, February 12, 2014     How tight is the labor market? The unemployment rate is down substantially from its October 2009 peak, but two-thirds of the decline is due to…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank, Wages & Income

Another Meaningless Non Farms Payroll Report

Regular readers may recall that I’m not a big fan of this Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data series, as it is unusually noisy and subject to further revisions and modeling adjustments. (See Ignore Today’s — and Most — Jobs Reports). As we discussed not too long ago, the Employment Situation report is “the…Read More

Category: Employment, Wages & Income

Category: Employment, Think Tank