Posts filed under “Employment”
Here is an interesting question: How does the present employment rate compare with the prior peak?
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, if we compare the prior recent peak of 139,143,000 of November 2007 with last month’s figure of 137,942,000 (I used non-seasonally-adjusted because it’s November to November), we are still 1.2 million or so below the earlier highs. This suggest that by May or June 2014, the recovery will pass previous top levels. (Perhaps it’s noteworthy that women have already passed their prior peak employment).
But let’s look at this differently. What if we back out all of the artificially driven employment that has disappeared? If that is the case, we have probably already passed the prior “reality adjustment peak employment” — months ago. That is, remove the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, subprime securitizers, construction workers, etc., of the bubble and you end up with much more modest numbers.
@TBPInvictus here: David Rosenberg made a point in his note Monday that I don’t think went quite far enough, or at least needs a bit more color: Rosie then showed the chart below (the Haver Analytics version of it, anyway), which he dubbed “Employment Less Financials in Private Sector.” In St. Louis Fred-speak, that…Read More
@TBPInvictus here. In yet another stunning display of journalistic malpractice, Terry Jeffrey put out the following piece after last Friday’s NFP release: Because it suited his (political) purpose, Jeffrey jumped on the Household Survey; looking at the Establishment Survey would not have provided such a dramatic headline. Indeed, it would have provided, for…Read More
Source: WSJ The Labor market continues to improve. Last week Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 204,000 new positions created, and adjustments to prior months data were upward. But the gains are not all they are cracked up to be. The jobs recovery has not been evenly distributed. The beneficiaries of the economic recovery have…Read More
One of the things I think Bloomberg should own are the deep dive, finance related interactive graphics. They can cover economics, investing and business with the data and firepower to just crush this sort of work. Here is the first example of what is hopefully the first of many crazy cool infographics: click for…Read More
Today, I want to discuss why the Employment Situation report is the single most over-hyped, over-analyzed, over-emphasized, least-understood economic releases known to mankind. It is also one of least useful economic data points where investors are concerned. Long-time readers must bear with me, as they have heard this too many times before. But to new…Read More