Posts filed under “Employment”
Nice set of charts via Floyd Norris of the NYT from his weekly “Off the Charts” column, which was about this surprising datapoint:
“All the jobs lost by women during the Great Recession have been recovered, at least in the private sector. But men still have a way to go before that happens.”
Gender Gaps Appear as Employment Recovers From the Recession
NYT, July 13 2013
click for updated futures Its a holiday weekend, so I am not going to detail all of the usual factors about NFP. Last month’s critique – THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah — should be reread; You can see the past 1000 or so kvetching posts on the subject of NFP…Read More
Really traders!?! Did you really believe that the Fed was never going to stop buying bonds? Really?!?
Do you think that the Fed was going to have an infinite accommodation, and that rates were going to stay at zero forever? Is that what you expected from the Central bank. C’mon, Really!?
And what about the dreaded hyper-inflation you have been warning us about for so long? Inflation has been so low for so long that it had its name legally changed to Deflation. Really!
Source: Trading Economics
Where you out the day Bernanke said he was targeting Unemployment, which has fallen from nearly 11% to 7.6%? Did you forget about that? Really!?!
And this entire Risk On rally — did you really think it was going to last forever? Really? US Equity are up nearly 150% over the past 5 years, didn’t you think it had to eventually slow down? Did you actually believe Markets were a uni-directional bet? Really?!?
The Fed has a dual mandate — stable prices and maximum employment. Did you really think there was a third component of maximizing your risk free equity returns? Really!?
This has been Really!?! With Ben & Janet.
Raskin starts at 3:30
Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin:
I became interested in this question of quality somewhat by accident. I did something atypical one day. I decided on my way into work I would stop at a jobs fair. There was a jobs fair at a local community college close to my home and I thought, I’m going to, you know, instead of pounding through all this heavy data that we typically look at at the board of governors, let me just go into this job fair. It turned out to be a really interesting morning, I have to say.
I should preface this by saying – purely anecdotal here, this is not something that is going to count as hard science or pass much muster in terms of statistical significant. But it was really interesting to me.
I went in and I have to say the kinds of jobs that were being offered surprised me. There were a number of restaurant jobs, some jobs from the military. There was one job from a community bank. Then there were a slew of jobs from, of all places, swimming pool companies. I thought that was kind of interesting. When I inquired about what these jobs were, they were lifeguard jobs, which I thought also was quite telling because back in the day to be a lifeguard I didn’t think quite required an advanced degree. These were the kinds of jobs we got in high school summers, I thought.
I was about to leave when I did see a sign that actually said IT jobs. So I thought, ‘here we go, here is going to be something pretty significant.’
So I went up to the person behind the both and they said, ‘we’ve got two kinds of IT jobs here: we’ve got armed security jobs, and we’ve got cyber security.’
So I thought, well, I’m probably not the armed security type, so tell me about the cyber security jobs.
This is how you go about getting it. You take your resume and you put it into a database. And this firm essentially collects resumes and then they kind of troll for government contracts. And when they find a government contract that might use your resume then they call you. Then you might actually get a job.
‘So what I need to do is put in my resume and then I’ll be able to get this job?’ And she said ‘yes.’
And I said: ‘while I’m waiting can I go to some other firms and throw my resume into their databases as well?’
And she said ‘oh no, you can’t do that, because you’re going to sign a letter of intent.’ And that letter of intent is basically an exclusivity agreement that says that by putting your resume in here you agree to not put your resume anywhere else.
I said ‘well, gosh, that’s going to be kind of rough. But tell me: what are the percentage chances that I’ll get a job?’
‘You know, we’re doing pretty well. Maybe a 25 percent chance.’
‘How do these jobs pay?’
‘They pay by the hour.’
‘Do they pay benefits?’
‘No benefits, it’s a straight hourly job. And it’s temporary so it’s going to be until the government contract is completed.’
This was really eye-opening for me.
Hat tip Reuters
Click to enlarge ~~~ ~~~ Yammy: “The greatest issue plaguing the U.S. economic recovery is the dismal pace of real income and wage growth. As long as incomes do not keep up with the underlying rate of inflation, the economy cannot manage enough growth to foster job creation. Average hourly earnings were unchanged in…Read More
@TBPInvictus It was, I guess, a rude awakening for me when I realized, many years ago, that most of the talking heads I saw on TV had no idea what the hell they were talking about. The sooner one learns that lesson, the better. So, take it from me (and BR, who says the same…Read More
Source: Bruce Steinberg Standard economist orthodoxy is that Non Farm Payroll is a “lagging indicator. What that means precisely is that the change in payroll in terms of both direction and magnitude will lag the overall business cycle. Meaning, the employment will turn up after he business cycle has already circled up, with the…Read More
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” -George E. P. Box OK kids, gather round for a quick debunking of the usual monthly idiocy. The May Employment Situation report seems to have taken on a special urgency from the carnival barkets, testosterone-poisoned traders, and other ne’er-do-wells working their hardest to…Read More