Posts filed under “Employment”
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis, the quarter of onset is 2007Q3.
“It probably will come as a big surprise to most people that employment is actually doing better and the stock market is doing worse than the typical post credit crisis recovery.” So say Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. They have been updating a chart that found its origins in an IMF report featuring a study of major banking crises done by academics Carmine Reinhart and Ken Rogoff.
The nearby chart, four major economic indicators – Employment CPI, interest rates, and stocks – compare this recovery versus the average of 15 prior financial crises. Much of the anecdotal criticisms of this recovery have been that employment has been lagging while the stock market has run too far. But as you can see in the updated IMF chart, United States employment is actually above the average post crisis recovery.
As I sat down to write this early this morning, no one knew what the jobs numbers would be. But I did know three related things: 1. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that 230,000 workers were added in August; 2. Almost all of the individual forecasters will be wrong. (Actually,…Read More
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at a record high of more than 2,000. Yet many people feel that the economy is weak. There are numerous reasons for this, but the one I want to focus on has to do with employment and wages. The economy feels weak because, depending on your education,…Read More
Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy Chair Janet L. Yellen FRBKC Economic Symposium Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 22, 2014 In the five years since the end of the Great Recession, the economy has made considerable progress in recovering from the largest and most sustained loss of employment in the United States since the…Read More
Central Bank Smackdown By John Mauldin July 5, 2014 BIS: The Opening Riposte Yellen’s Counter-Riposte The Coming Liquidity Crisis A Few Thoughts on the Nonfarm Payroll Number Nantucket, New York City, Maine, San Antonio, and China(?) Smackdown: smack·down, ˈsmakˌdoun/, noun, US informal 1. a bitter contest or confrontation. “the age-old man…Read More