Posts filed under “Employment”

Dumb Headline of the Week

Sometimes, the headline copywriter just gets it wrong.

When initial unemployment claims fell
9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000, it led to this headline:

Labor Market May Be Stronger Than Believed

Except for the first sentence, which stated "Jobless claims fell last week, a hint the employment picture may not be as bleak as last month’s decline in payrolls suggested" the gravamen of the article was that many indicators were negative.

The writer mentioned that LEIs fell yet again, as weakness in consumer confidence,
jobless claims, stock prices and building permits took a toll. More than a quarter of the firms said they are
scaling back employment and capital-spending plans because of
deterioration in the construction industry and financial-market

This sort of stuff must make  reporters nuts . . .

Category: Employment, Financial Press

Yield Spread, Employment Data Forecast Recession

Category: Economy, Employment, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

Applying Trend and Technical Tools to NFP

Category: Economy, Employment, Technical Analysis, Trading

Employment Population Ratio & Recessions

Directly on point with our last post on NILFs and the labor participation rate, David points us to this delicious econ-wonk chart (below). It shows the relationship between a declining Employment Population Ratio, and subsequent recessions: Fascinating chart — thanks for the pointer, Dave, and thanks Adam for the chart! > Source: EM-Ratio — What,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

4.6% Unemployment is actually 5.5%

Because of the office move (broadband gets hooked up today tomorrow), I have been a few days behind in tearing apart major releases. Yesterday, we gave the business to last week’s Back-to-School sales data, which was weaker than it appeared. We previously noted the many different ways BLS measures and reports unemployment (A Closer Look…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Psychology

The Big Stall

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, Financial Press


Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve

A Closer Look at Unemployment

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve

Construction Employment, Contractors, Jobs

Category: Consumer Spending, Employment, Real Estate

Brilliant Economists Can’t Figure It Out

Tom Toles perfectly sums up both the present economic environment, and the problem with economists:

Category: Earnings, Economy, Employment, Psychology, Wages & Income