Posts filed under “Employment”
Fascinating set of charts via Martin Pring at Real Money, applying trend following and technical analysis to NFPs.
"Technicians assume that markets move in trends and that once a trend begins, it remains in force until enough indicators prove that it has reversed.
Trends, of course, can range from intraday trends to secular trends extending over several decades. Obviously it’s not possible to apply intraday analysis to economic data, because most of this information is published on a monthly basis.
To monitor these cycles in nonfarm payrolls, I decided to divide each monthly data point by a 12-month moving average. The great thing about a 12-month average is that it eliminates any seasonal biases. The result is the indicator plotted at the bottom of the first chart."
Here are 4 of Pring’s charts on the issue. They are rather instructive.
Larger chart: 091107_pring02.gif
Larger chart: 091107_pring03.gif
Larger chart: 091107_pring04.gif
Very interesting approach . . .
Trading Nonfarm Payroll Charts
Directly on point with our last post on NILFs and the labor participation rate, David points us to this delicious econ-wonk chart (below). It shows the relationship between a declining Employment Population Ratio, and subsequent recessions: Fascinating chart — thanks for the pointer, Dave, and thanks Adam for the chart! > Source: EM-Ratio — What,…Read More
Because of the office move (broadband gets hooked up today tomorrow), I have been a few days behind in tearing apart major releases. Yesterday, we gave the business to last week’s Back-to-School sales data, which was weaker than it appeared. We previously noted the many different ways BLS measures and reports unemployment (A Closer Look…Read More