Posts filed under “Employment”

Unemployment Rate: Saved by the Gals!

How did we get to that 4.4% unemployment rate?  The answer lay in Table A: The “Employment” component expanded by +437k;

Note that the Household data is from whence the unemployment rate comes from. To see the details of who was contributing to the hiring surge that. Just two weeks before the election, it conveniently dropped the unemployment rate 0.2%:

From Table A-1:

(Men of this age and over…..)
M 16+ 57k
M 20+ 40k

(Women of this age and over ….)
W 16+ 379k
W 20+ 303k

~87% of the jump in the “Employment” component of the Household Survey was women.

Helluva month — a huge decrease in unemployment nearly totally dependent on a massive surge in women returning back to the workplace . . . I never saw that one coming.

Go figure.


UPDATE: November 6, 2006 1:10pm

Yaser Anwar adds: "Investors need to ask the question- How long can the economy thrive
when over 2/3rds of the job gains in the last six months have come from
government, education, health and leisure services?"



BLS, Household Survey, November 03, 2006

Category: Employment

NFP: Retiring the Over/Under Bet

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Middle Class Squeeze Continues

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Psychology

Bloggers Take On: Employment

This is another of our new features: Blogger’s Take. It is inspired by — a nice word for stolen — the WSJ’s Economist’s Take, which they post after major economic data releases.

We wanted to do something a bit more informal: Looking at different subjects a bit more in depth, and take in some perspectives from a broad variety of bloggers (as opposed to a narrow slice of Wall Street Dismal Scientists.

Here are our first half dozen responses to the question: "What Up With Employment?"

"A striking characteristic of the US non-farms job data since the trough of 2002 is that recovery growth is the weakest since records began in 1939 (uncertain BLS September revision notwithstanding). Even the brief and frail recovery between the 1980 and 1981 recessions was stronger. It may be that growth has not yet peaked – but that would make this jobs recovery the slowest to pan out on record.

Moreover, the latest non-farm payrolls data paints a picture of deterioration, particularly in construction and related industries. Whilst both the unemployment rate and hourly earnings data stuck out as good news, the fact is they are lagging indicators. The Fed has ammo to hold on this data; but should coming months show job losses (not outlandish) they might still choose to wait on clearer inflation (and BLS) data before contemplating the wisdom of cuts."

- Rawdon, Capital Chronicle

Read More

Category: Blog Spotlight, Employment

Household versus Establishment Surveys, part 42

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Absurdly Large BLS Revisions, part II

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

An Absurdly Large Outlier in the History of BLS Revisions

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

NFP Day!

Category: Economy, Employment

What’s Really Propping Up The Economy?

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Are Labor Costs Really Rising ?

Category: Economy, Employment, Psychology