Posts filed under “Employment”

The Bifurcated Economy

How important was the economy to the election? According to exit polling data, it was the top issue, polling higher than Iraq, Terrorism, or Corruption.

On the day before the election, we noted that It was Still the Economy, Stupid. In an article Sunday, the NYTimes took a similar approach in Maybe You Did Vote Your Pocketbook:

"To paraphrase a Clinton-era mantra, it really might have been the
economy, stupid. More than 80 percent of voters in an exit poll,
conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison
Media Research/Mitofsky International, said the economy was a very
important or extremely important issue. That percentage was the highest
for any issue, including Iraq and terrorism.

Furthermore, electoral data and government economic statistics
suggest that the economy played a role in the outcome: if your state
wasn’t among the best economic performers in the last six years, judged
by the growth of personal income, it appears that you were three times
as likely to vote to throw the bums out."

In the past, we have discussed the Middle Class Squeeze, and the increasing chasm between the top 10% of earners and everyone else.

It turns out that this schism (to a lesser degree) is also reflected geographically. This lumpy economic recovery is being felt differently in different parts of the Nation. Personal Income gains in particular can have varied dramatically from State to State. Some parts of the country have enjoyed decent wage gains, while many others have not.

What was the the political impact to this uneven growth this election cycle? The faster your
state’s personal income rose over the past 6 years, the more likely you
were to elect incumbent GOP representatives:

click for larger chart


graphic courtesy of NYTimes


Maybe You Did Vote Your Pocketbook
NYTimes, November 12, 2006

Category: Economy, Employment, Politics

Bushwhacked on the Economy

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Politics

BLS Margin of Error

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Unemployment Rate: Saved by the Gals!

Category: Employment

NFP: Retiring the Over/Under Bet

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Middle Class Squeeze Continues

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Psychology

Bloggers Take On: Employment

This is another of our new features: Blogger’s Take. It is inspired by — a nice word for stolen — the WSJ’s Economist’s Take, which they post after major economic data releases.

We wanted to do something a bit more informal: Looking at different subjects a bit more in depth, and take in some perspectives from a broad variety of bloggers (as opposed to a narrow slice of Wall Street Dismal Scientists.

Here are our first half dozen responses to the question: "What Up With Employment?"

"A striking characteristic of the US non-farms job data since the trough of 2002 is that recovery growth is the weakest since records began in 1939 (uncertain BLS September revision notwithstanding). Even the brief and frail recovery between the 1980 and 1981 recessions was stronger. It may be that growth has not yet peaked – but that would make this jobs recovery the slowest to pan out on record.

Moreover, the latest non-farm payrolls data paints a picture of deterioration, particularly in construction and related industries. Whilst both the unemployment rate and hourly earnings data stuck out as good news, the fact is they are lagging indicators. The Fed has ammo to hold on this data; but should coming months show job losses (not outlandish) they might still choose to wait on clearer inflation (and BLS) data before contemplating the wisdom of cuts."

- Rawdon, Capital Chronicle

Read More

Category: Blog Spotlight, Employment

Household versus Establishment Surveys, part 42

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Absurdly Large BLS Revisions, part II

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

An Absurdly Large Outlier in the History of BLS Revisions

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment