Posts filed under “Energy”

Job Recovery All Oil & Fracking ? Hardly

 

“All of the job growth from 2007 to today can easily be attributed to the shale oil fracking situation and the oil Renaissance. If you take Texas and North Dakota out of the data series for job employment, what you see is that we haven’t added any jobs in the United States other than those two regions.”

 

The comment above by famed bond investor Jeff Gundlach during a conference call last week set off a firestorm, repeating a trope that has been gaining traction in some quarters. The claim is that all the job creation in this economic recovery is related to the surge in oil and natural-gas fracking. This is demonstrably false.

There have been variations on this theme floating around for a few years. To get the basic claim to work, you need to accept two flawed analyses. The first is that all net job growth in the U.S. since 2007 is the result of the energy and related industries. The second is that, absent Texas, the rest of the country lost jobs.

The reports on which these claims are based are biased and full of analytical errors. Making matters worse, they both come from think tanks that specialize in slanted economic analysis. As the saying goes, torture the data long enough and it will confess to anything.

Let’s begin with a few facts: There are now 118.4 million U.S. workers in private-sector jobs. The economy lost a lot of jobs during the Great Recession, and it wasn’t until 2010 that we began adding to the nonfarm payroll numbers. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, more than 10 million jobs have been created since the end of 2010.

What about all of the oil and fracking jobs?

Continues here

 

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Employment, Energy, Really, really bad calls

Global Monetary Policy Changes in a Map

Source: Deutsche Bank via Business Insider

Category: Economy, Energy, Inflation

The Plunge in Petroleum

Source: The Economist

Category: Energy, Markets

My Forecast Free Wish List for 2015

U.S. markets have declined in the new year. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. When markets go straight up without pause and sentiment becomes excessive, it rarely ends well. A little dose of fear might be a good thing. Which brings me to today’s listicle. These aren’t forecasts, but events I’d like to see happen….Read More

Category: Energy, Markets, Real Estate

Oil, Europe, good and bad & Spain

Oil, Europe, good and bad & Spain David R. Kotok December 29, 2014     Less than two months ago, Oxford Economics modeled sensitivity to the oil price by conducting simulations on 47 countries. Their baseline then was an “$84 Brent crude price average in 2015… gradually recovering to $106 in 2019.” Their updated work has tested…Read More

Category: Energy, Investing, Think Tank

Falling Oil Prices Shake Up Many Markets

Source: WSJ

Category: Energy, Markets

Opec States Scramble to Avoid Debt Default

click for ginormous graphic Source: The London Times

Category: Credit, Digital Media, Energy, Politics

Oil As A Weapon

Art Cashin of UBS shares the following observations from Don Coxe this past week. I thought it was interesting, and wanted to pass it along: “The incomparable Don Coxe, one of the very best observers and analysts of global commodities recently wrote this: Most observers thought the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would cut…Read More

Category: Energy, War/Defense

Why Gold & Oil Are Trading So Differently

Category: Commodities, Energy, ETFs, Gold & Precious Metals, Media, Technical Analysis, Trading, Video

Impact of Oil Price Drop on Producer Nation Deficits

click for larger graphic Source: Economist

Category: Digital Media, Energy, Taxes and Policy