Posts filed under “Energy”

Speculators & Oil Price Spikes, Part II

Why is it that market-worshipers claim fundamentals are responsible for equity prices, but speculators are to blame for Oil prices?

Bill King goes even further: "There is a fervid, global crusade, especially by politicians, to pin escalating oil prices on speculators."

On the other side of the argument, George Soros warns Speculators are largely responsible for driving crude prices to their peaks in recent weeks. And Germany has called for ban on oil speculation altogether. (See John Authors video here)

My own view is that speculators have contributed to the price to
some degree, but the tight supplies and freefalling dollar get more
blame.

This weekend, John Mauldin looked at a variety of factors impacting oil prices, and if you missed it over the long weekend, its worth a few minutes of your time.

Rather than adding to the noise, lets look at a few charts — both pro and con — that may reveal some insight as to the impact of speculators.

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The Impact of Commodity Index on Spot Prices

Comm_index_spec

Commodity Prices and the Weak Dollar

Oil_dollar_euro

Not Widely Traded Commodities

Exchange_v_non_exchange_traded_comm

Commodity_trade

This is only a brief survey, and I’m sure I missed some worthy links — please add related articles in comments . . .

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Sources:
The Short View: Commodity speculation
John Authers
FT, May 20 2008 19:54
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3072f8b6-2694-11dd-9c95-000077b07658.html

George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble
Edmund Conway,
Telegraph, 12:53am BST 27/05/2008  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml

Germany in call for ban on oil speculation   
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Telegraph, 12:53am BST 27/05/2008   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnoil126.xml

Whither the Price of Oil?
John Mauldin   
Thoughts from the Frontline, May 23, 2008
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo052308

Related:

Masters Capital Management
Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs  May 20, 2008   
http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf

High Oil Prices Spur Thoughts About Bubbles,But This Might Be Misguided
WSJ, May 27, 2008;
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121175335973420383.html

Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch 
WSJ, May 22, 2008;
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html

Understanding crude oil prices
Econbrowser, May 24, 2008   
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/05/understanding_c.html

Commodities Investment Bubble May Burst by Yearend, Lehman Says 
Bloomberg, May 16, 2008   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNpLC6_ZrK0k&

Category: Commodities, Energy, Markets, Trading

John Authers: Speculators & Oil Price Spikes

Category: Commodities, Energy, Trading

Trouble in the Hamptons?

Category: Economy, Energy

State Gas Taxes

Category: Energy, Taxes and Policy

Quote of the Day: US Energy Policy

Category: Energy, Taxes and Policy

Untapped Resources?

Category: Energy, Taxes and Policy

Another good Friday on CNBC — excellent guests, discussing real issues, and in great detail.

Like the interview two weeks ago with David Einhorn and William Ackman, this shows how good finacial television can be when a smart guest discusses weighty topics with sufficient time to go into details beyond bumper sticker.

I don’t know much about David Walker, but I was very impressed with him. Here’s info on the Peterson Foundation.

I don’t think the videos have as much Walker as they did on TV . . . 

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Private Equity With Pete Peterson
click for video
Peter_peterson_david_walker

Discussing the state of private equity, with Pete Peterson, The
Blackstone Group chairman/co-founder and David Walker former U.S.
Comptroller 

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Wall Street Star
click for video
Patterson

Perspectives on the economy, with Pete Peterson, The Blackstone
Group chairman/co-founder and David Walker former U.S. Comptroller

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Previously:
Video: David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, William Ackman, Pershing Square Capital
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/video-david-ein.html

Category: Economy, Energy, Taxes and Policy, Video

BioFuel?

Category: Commodities, Economy, Energy

Crude Oil = $132; Peak Oil ?

Category: Commodities, Energy

Seasonal Adjustments and Inflation

Category: Data Analysis, Energy, Inflation