Posts filed under “Energy”
The Financial Times –Iran’s oil output falls to a 20-year low
Iran’s oil production has fallen to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq war 20 years ago as western sanctions threaten Tehran’s economic lifeline. Oil traders and western policy makers who monitor Iranian oi production estimate that Tehran pumped 3.2m barrels last month, the lowest amount since 1992. That is below the depressed level of 1999, when members of the Opec oil cartel implemented draconian production cuts to shore up oil prices, which had fallen below $10. “The full scale of the Iranian sanctions is yet to be fully appreciated by the market,” James Zhang, oil analyst at Standard Bank in London, said in a note to clients. Just five years ago, Iran produced 4.2m b/d. It pumped 3.7m b/d last year.Iranian oil production has fallen well beyond the initial expectations of Washington and Brussels as the latest round of sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear programme disrupts an industry already suffering from years of under-investment.The most recent European and US sanctions came into effect on July 1, triggering a scramble amid some refiners to find last- minute alternative suppliers. Russia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have met most of the extra request for crude, traders said.The sharp drop in Iranian oil output comes amid heightened diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran and western powers failed to bridge their differences in high-level talks about the atomic programme over the past three months. The US and its European allies hoped that the oil sanctions would force Tehran to yield in the negotiations to avoid further economic damage.
Charts Of The Week
July 11, 2012
Never a good sign to see falling prices in gasoline heading right into the teeth o driving season — it means that demand is soft, and that suggests economic slowing . . . Daily Gas Prices Source: Bianco Research Charts Of The Week July 11, 2012
Here is a twist: We used to discuss how the Fed loved their core (ex food & energy) inflation measures. I termed that Inflation Ex-Inflation, and if you look around TBP, you will see lots of mentions of that measure.
Take a closer look at Energy, one of the biggest non-housing components. As noted this morning, Commodities have entered a Bear Market. Gas & Oil are not contributing much inflationary pressures. If anything, Energy costs now are acting as a drag on Inflation.
Call it Inflation Ex-Deflation (Do you want to guess what that means for the Fed’s love of the Core Inflation (ex food & energy)?
Consider the Federal Reserve inflation target of 2.0%. Jim Bianco notes that inflation is moderate at 1.73%. However, if you take a closer look at the chart below of core CPI — you will see a 2.3% on a year-over-year basis (blue line) and a heady 2.71% on a three-month annualized basis (red line).
Sum it up and it means inflation less energy is largely running above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Energy Now A Drag On Inflation
Source: Bianco Research
More charts after the jump
Previously-Secret 1955 Government Report Concluded that Ocean May Not Adequately Dilute Radiation from Nuclear Accidents Posted on June 1, 2012 by WashingtonsBlog Fukushima Likely to Produce “Pockets” and “Streams” of Highly-Concentrated Radiation The operator of the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant has been dumping something like a thousand tons per day of radioactive water into the…Read More
Japanese capital spending (ex software) rose by +3.5% YoY in the 1st Q, slightly lower than the increase of +4.9% in the previous Q. Post tsunami spending is helping, but the economy will face headwinds in the 2nd half of the year; The official Chinese PMI fell to 50.4, from 53.3 in May, lower than…Read More
Source: Bianco Research Its the official start of the summer driving season — and that means a closer look at gasoline prices. The peak this year was earlier than last — April 5 (2012) at 3.936 versus May 4 (2011) and 3.955. No recent year compares to the 2008 peak at 4.105.
Click to enlarge: Bloomberg.com – Unlocking the Crude Oil Bottleneck at Cushing The U.S. oil infrastructure is the product of four decades of rising imports and falling domestic supply. As those trends have reversed over the last few years, America’s network of pipelines has failed to keep pace. Designed in part to ferry oil and…Read More
Nuclear Cheerleaders Use Voodoo Science to Pretend Low Levels of Radiation Are Safe … Or Even Good For You Dr. Peter Karamoskos – a nuclear radiologist and a public representative on the radiation health committee of the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency – wrote in the Sydey Herald last year: You have to…Read More
Awesome set of data from Bloomberg: Click to enlarge: ˜˜˜ Most expensive gas ranking: Price per gallon of premium gasoline: Norway $9.69 Denmark $9.37 Italy $9.35 Netherland $9.35 Greece $9.23 Sweden $8.97 Hong Kong $8.89 Portugal $8.85 United Kingdom $8.84 Belgium $8.82 France $8.72 Finland $8.59 Germany $8.56 Ireland $8.34 Switzerland $7.95 Slovakia $7.93…Read More