Posts filed under “ETFs”
GLD vs. SPY Relative Price
Here is an interesting observation: The value of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is now worth more than the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) representing the full index. (This refers to the ETFs and not the underlying value of the SPX and Gold).
Note that ETFs are not fully representative of the underlying indices valuation, and that can lead to some odd permutations. For example, Apple (AAPL), a member of the S&P500 Index (SPY) and Nasdaq100 (QQQ), is worth more than both ETFs combined.
What might this mean?
Lets look at the two charts on this page: The one at top shows the relative moves of the two indices. They have diverged, heading in separate directions, and are now extremely far apart. That valuation difference is reflective of sentiment reaching an extreme. This is somewhat reminiscent of back in October 2002, when the Pimco Total Return Bond Fund surpassed the Vanguard S&P500 fund to become the largest mutual fund (See these Contrary Indicators 2000 – 2003 Bear), and could have some contrary value.
The second chart, at bottom, shows a simple ratio of SPY to GLD. It has now dropped below the March 2009 levels. That might also be constructive for a reversion (ie, bounce in SPY and drop in GLD)
It could be a contrary indicator, as the two indices have moved to extremes. Equity markets are now extremely oversold, while Gold has moved parabolically. Some mean reversion would appropriate around now.
One caveat: The MACD reading of this ratio was far more deeply into the red back at the 2009 market lows. That suggests this reading can get further oversold.
Perhaps this is supportive of (warning: selective perception ahead) an oversold bounce that ultimately rolls over, taking this ratio to greater extremes.
SPY versus GLD Ratio
The S&P500 is one of the most widely held indices in the US. And yet, the Market Cap weighted version has a tendency to become dominated by a handful of big caps. This is especially likely towards the end of a major run, when a handful of megacaps dominate the trading action. One possible solution?…Read More
Ari Weinberg is the WSJ Editor for Financial Tools; His perspective can also be seen on occasion at the Journal’s MarketBeat. ~~~ PIMCO made a big splash in the small world of actively-managed exchange-traded funds by filing for an ETF version of its Total Return Fund. As many have accurately noted, PIMCO’s filing makes a…Read More
Interesting cover on Barron’s this week: This is hardly a contrary view — I’ve heard from lots of people saying they are doing the same thing. As mentioned previously, stick with the small cap funds (DFJ, SCJ, and JSC). The large market cap ETF (EWJ) is not the ideal investment for the bounce back (already…Read More
click for larger chart Chart courtesy of FusionIQ, Bloomberg > I wanted to follow up a post from last year about EWJ. Back in December ’10, I mentioned 10 Reasons I Am Thinking About Japan. Regardless of your views going forward, if you owned or traded this, you should have had a plan in place,…Read More
NEW YORK (Big Picture Exclusive) – Gargantuan money manager Blackrock reported on Friday that assets in U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded products have surpassed the $1 trillion milestone for the first time. Combined assets in U.S.-listed ETFs and ETPs reached $1.027 trillion late Thursday, BlackRock said. That includes 894 ETFs with assets of $887.2 billion…Read More
I first recommended GLD on Power lunch back in 2005. The Gold ETF was under $50, and the rec was greeted with widespread skepticism. The basis for the call was the 1% rate level that had set off a spiral of inflation in everything priced in US dollars or credit. But I had no idea…Read More
ETF’s Firm Foundations by Matt Hougan
November 20, 2010
Matt Hougan is the President of ETF Analytics and the Global Head of Editorial for IndexUniverse. This is a guest column written by him in response to the recent negative press reports about ETFs.
Over the past few months, a series of poorly researched “white papers” have criticized exchange-traded funds and raised questions about the soundness of the ETF structure.
These papers—from the Kauffman Foundation, Bogan Associates, and others—center on three main assertions:
1) ETFs are fundamentally flawed and subject to collapse during stressful market conditions.
2) ETFs are a serious threat to market stability and are likely to cause future “flash crashes.”
3) ETFs are driving up the correlation between individual stocks, ruining price discovery in the markets, and thereby threatening capitalism as we know it.
All three assertions are false. They rest on a foundation of flawed logic, simple misunderstandings of ETF structures, and superficial research.
Despite transparent flaws, these arguments have received widespread media attention, from CNBC to the Financial Times. That’s a shame, because even a little bit of research could debunk the claims quickly.
Claim 1: ETFs Are Fundamentally Flawed and Could Collapse
The argument that ETFs could collapse was first advanced by a research outfit named Bogan Associates in a white paper published on September 15, 2010. It centers on the fact that many ETFs have high short interest, often many multiples of the number of shares outstanding.
The Bogan report focused on the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEArca: XRT), which at the time the report was written had over 500 percent short interest; in other words, each share in XRT had been sold short five times.
That sounds terrifying. How can an ETF have more shares sold short than exist in the first place? But it happens regularly with both stocks and ETFs, and it is both perfectly legal and safe.
Imagine that I own all of the shares of XRT. I want to earn a little extra money, so I lend them to you, for a fee, so that you can sell them short. You sell them to a guy named Bob. XRT has 100 percent short interest.
If Bob then lends them to someone else who sells short, the ETF now has 200 percent short interest. They may then lend the shares to another party, and so on.
Bogan’s particular concern with ETF short interest ties to one of the most important features of the ETF structure: the ability of large shareholders in the ETF to “redeem” shares back to the ETF issuer. If a large institution owns 50,000 shares of a fund like XRT, it can give them back to the ETF issuer and receive in exchange an equal value in the underlying stocks held in the ETF portfolio.
Bogan’s concern is that if even one-fifth of the people who bought XRT from short sellers redeem their shares, the ETF provider will be forced to hand out all the underlying securities in the fund. The fund will then be left holding nothing, and anyone who still has XRT in their portfolio will be left holding worthless paper.
It’s easy to see the concern. So easy, in fact, that the lawyers who designed ETFs put protections in place to guard against this situation. Those protections vary in detail but follow a similar form: When ETFs have high short interest, redeeming shareholders must prove they have clean, unencumbered ownership before a redemption is processed. This language exists in every prospectus I’ve looked at; the team at Bogan Associates either didn’t open a prospectus or was simply engaged in scare tactics.
The Kauffman report, published last week, took this mistaken concept and shoved it one tangled step further. Kauffman’s primary concern was that, during a market crisis, investors might place huge buy orders for an ETF, flooding it with cash. They suggested that the ETF issuer would then have to chase stocks, trying to put that cash to work. If the issuer couldn’t buy the shares, the ETF’s value would be in question.
Cassandra Does Tokyo is a former hedge fund manager and ex NY Trader, who is now living abroad. ~~~ ETFs clearly can provide some advantages for obtaining otherwise-expensive-to-obtain exposures for thematically-oriented investors. More noteworthy perhaps is the way that such vehicles have captured the imagination of Promoters and Managers as a salvation for otherwise stagnant…Read More
Good article from Bob O’Brien in Barron’s warning about the dangers of 2X Short funds: Beware of Leveraged Short ETFs. Its not just the short leveraged ETFs, its all of the leveraged ETFs that have the same slippage characteristic over time. As anyone who has ever traded them can tell you, they fail to track…Read More