Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”
For this morning’s column, I want you to engage in a little thought experiment. Based on the e-mails readers have sent, many of you figure the Dec. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a no-brainer and that the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate. Well, let’s put that thesis to the test. To do so, I am making you, dear reader, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The setup for our barely hypothetical scenario is as follows:
Imagine (it’s not that hard to do!) that a huge financial crisis and economic collapse has occurred. The historical response to a crisis like this has been a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus to replace the decline in household and private-sector demand. But this time, political gridlock and ideological foolishness made the usual fiscal response impossible. That left monetary policy — mostly asset purchases via quantitative easing and zero interest rates — as the sole post-credit-crisis stimulus.
Continues here: You’re the Fed Chairman. What Would You Do?
It was October 2nd, the date of the last payroll number that the stock market rebound really got going as after a 30 pt drop in the S&P’s in immediate response to the weak number, it then celebrated with an almost 30 pt rally by the close on the thought the Fed would not be…Read More
Low Short-Term Rates for a Long Time? David Kotok November 4, 2015 We are likely to have worldwide near-zero short-term interest rates for at least another two years, maybe three or four. The implications for stocks, bonds, and currency exchange rates are huge, as we will explain below. Let’s define worldwide short-term rates…Read More
This morning’s column began as a discussion about biases — how you need to know what may be influencing the sources you read; however, it has morphed into a look at transparency and conflicts of interest. What prompted this was a post defending the payday lending industry that appeared on Liberty Street Economics, the blog…Read More
October 21, 2015 by Bob Eisenbeis, Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist A friend noted an interesting indicator yesterday of a growing split among FOMC participants. The clue is found in the little-read minutes of the Board of Governors’ meetings on the discount rate. For those who don’t know, each Federal Reserve Bank board of…Read More