Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

The U.S. Economy Upshifts

 

“Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales was misleading at best.” — New York Times

 

No, this isn’t going to be a victory lap about the National Retail Federation and its always-wrong forecasts about holiday retail sales (that annual chest-pounding comes in January). Rather, this is about the recent U.S. economic acceleration and what it might mean for the stock market, the Federal Reserve and bonds.

The combination of falling oil prices, increasing job availability and rising wages bodes well for retail sales. Perhaps more significantly, the economy is now showing unmistakable signs of acceleration. Following several years of subpar job creation, jobs are now being added at a robust pace. As we noted last week, the U.S. is adding an average of 241,000 jobs a month. That’s almost a 25 percent increase from 2013’s monthly average of 194,000.

Some of you will no doubt be compelled to note that any economic recovery is artificial, the result of the Fed’s bond-buying program of quantitative easing and its zero interest-rate policy. To which I say, you are in part right. But I am equally compelled to point out that many of these are the same folks who have been loudly complaining that QE and ZIRP weren’t working. Well, which is it? Is QE impotent or does it generate growth, albeit it artificial? Critics of the Fed can’t have it both ways.

Regardless, investors may want to consider the ramifications of accelerating  economic growth:

No. 1. Economic activity is uncorrelated with the stock market.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing

The Fed Spectrometer

  Federal Reserve Hawks vs Doves   click for ginormous infographic Source: Bloomberg Briefs   Text only version is here  

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged

Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged Early Elias, Helen Irvin, and Òscar Jordà FRBSF, 2014-35 November 24, 2014     An accurate measure of economic slack is key to properly calibrating monetary policy. Two traditional gauges of slack have become harder to interpret since the Great Recession: the gap between output and its potential…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Fed Policy and Stock Outlook

Fascinating stuff here: The Easy Money’s Been Made: Fed Policy and Stock Outlook Source: Bloomberg Chart of the Day

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

Forward Guidance in Extraordinary Times, in Normal Times, and Betwixt the Two Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 6, 2014   Good evening and thank you very much for the invitation to speak to the Money Marketeers.  I understand that a long line of Federal Reserve presidents and governors have…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates?

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Yellen: Central Banking: The Way Forward?

At the “Central Banking: The Way Forward?”, International Symposium of the Remarks at the Panel Discussion on “Shaping the Future of the Macroeconomic Policy Mix” Chair Janet L. Yellen Banque de France, Paris, France November 7, 2014       Remarks at the Panel Discussion on “Shaping the Future of the Macroeconomic Policy Mix” I…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Fisher: It’s Very Dangerous to `Tamper’ With Fed

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher talks about the central bank’s independence, monetary policy and economy. Fisher speaks with Michael McKee, Stephanie Ruhle and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”


Source: Bloomberg Nov. 5 2014

Category: Federal Reserve, Video

The Rising Complexity of the FOMC Statement

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

CFR: A Conversation With Alan Greenspan

Alan Greenspan discusses current trends in the global economy and his solutions for addressing the financial crisis.

The C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics is presented by the Corporate Program and the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies.

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Really, really bad calls, Video