Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

Druckenmiller: Look for Three Market Surprises in 2015

Stan Druckenmiller is betting on the unexpected. With one of the best long-term track records in money management, he is anticipating three surprises: Improving economy in China, Rising oil prices, and no Federal Reserve interest rate increase in 2015.

Stan Druckenmiller: Zero-Interest Rates Unnecessary

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Investing, Video

Dear Ben: Better Pace Yourself . . .

Dear Ben, If I might be so bold as to assume we can be on a first-name basis, let me be among of the first to say, congrats on the new gig! You have been quite the busy ex-Fed chairman, what with the new job and office at Brookings and a red hot new eponymous blog. Today we learned you entered into…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Humor, Philosophy, Weblogs

Fed: “Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?”

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

How much weight does the FOMC put on inflation vs unemployment?

From Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.: When I discuss the timing of Fed liftoff with clients it is essentially a debate about how much weight the FOMC puts on inflation and how much weight they put on the unemployment rate. If you believe they put a high weight on inflation, then they will not raise rates anytime…Read More

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere . . .

Source: BAML, Fiscal Times     I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal — to investors, to the economy…Read More

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Atlanta Fed’s Forecast for 2015 Q1

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

The Fed’s Hidden Message Contained Within the Dots . . .

Of all the maddening things about this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the single most annoying is the hoopla surrounding the so-called dot plot. It even has its own Twitter hashtag: #Dotplot. The dot plot is a chart that shows the expectations of each FOMC member — absent their names — for where they believe the…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, UnGuru

The Fed — Drunken Coxswain of the SS America

The Fed – Drunken Coxswain of the SS America Paul L. Kasriel The Econtrarian, March 17, 2015     Back on January 25, I penned a piece entitled “The Fed – Lucky or Smart?”. In that commentary I argued that the Fed was managing the supply of total thin-air credit, i.e., the sum of commercial…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Think Tank