Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

Yellen’s Labor Market Dashboard



Source: Bloomberg

Category: Digital Media, Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve

Macroprudential policy – from Tiberius to Crockett and beyond

Macroprudential policy – from Tiberius to Crockett and beyond Speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe Deputy Governor for Financial Stability of the Bank of England, TheCityUK, London 28 July 2015       Historians still argue about the exact causes of the financial crash of AD 33 that rocked the Roman Empire. The commentators of the day…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Think Tank

Monetary Policy Normalization in the United States

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

I spent the past week in Maine, fishing for smallmouth bass and discussing policy with largemouth economists. It is an annual trip, and one where the wine flows freely and the debate is sincere and robust and perhaps best of all, very unguarded. The open nature of the discussion is the result of the Chatham House…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

To Figure Out What the Fed is Going to Do, Just Ignore the Fed

After almost seven years, the beginning of the end of ultralow rates is here. What’s that you say? The Fed is going to raise rates? Remember the so-called taper tantrum in 2013, when some traders dumped Treasuries to express their ire at the Federal Reserve for having the temerity to suggest that rates can’t stay at zero forever? Today…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve

Three forces driving US long rates

From Deutsche Bank: A striking feature of my ongoing discussions with clients is that many still believe that as a result of secular stagnation “long rates will never go up”. The problem is that holding onto that view has been expensive for the past seven weeks. Long rates in the US are driven by 1)…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets, Think Tank

Dissent: No Stranger in the History of the FOMC

Click for a ginormous infographic. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Category: Digital Media, Federal Reserve

Bring Back the Drachma!

The never ending sturm und drang over the state of Greek debt, membership in the euro zone and the potential shocks of a debt default have moved from tragedy to comedy to monotony. The solution is simple. It won’t be fast, it won’t be easy, but it will be a huge improvement for all concerned….Read More

Category: Bailouts, Currency, Current Affairs, Federal Reserve

NFP: Is Good News Bad News?

Over the years, I have spilled far too many pixels on how overhyped the monthly nonfarm payroll report is. What matters isn’t any single month, given how noisy and subject to future revisions the provisional release actually is. The recency effect makes you place a greater emphasis on what just occurred in a data series, a sign of the evolutionary leftover code hanging around your wetware….Read More

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Philosophy

The Fed Raising Rates?

The Fed Raising Rates? David Kotok Cumberland Advisors, May 26, 2015       It’s not about when; it’s about the path to get there. Suppose the Fed lifts rates on the short end of the yield curve by a quarter point in September. Or December. Will it really make a difference? Suppose the Fed’s…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank