Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

“Every Change of Rate”

“Every Change of Rate” is an utterly hysterical parody of the black & white Police video “Every Breath You Take,” as done by some Columbia Biz School students; Its an amusing take on the Ben Bernanke, the newly appointed Fed Chief.

My favorite bit are the lyrics during the second verse:

“First you move your lips,
Hike a few more bips,
When demand then dips,
And the Yield Curve Flips
I’ll be watching you”

Too funny!

click for Windows Media video
Glenn_hubbard

Every_rate_you_hike

Its a bit harsh on Ben Bernanke, who after all has only been in
office for one FOMC meeting. Still, the overall effect is quite
amusing!

Here’s the video source: Columbia.edu/students/follies
http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

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UPDATE: April 26, 2006 4:15pm

The WSJ’s Marketbeat was just as amused as I was by this:

Glenn Hubbard: King of Pain

Today’s best four minutes of the day: an uproarious parody of the Police’s “Every Breath You Take” by students at Columbia Business School, which purports to show the school’s dean, Glenn Hubbard — and, no, that is not Mr. Hubbard, the school confirms, but a look-alike student — taking Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to task for monetary policy mistakes (in a fit of jealousy over not getting the position). It’s hard to resist the charm of any attempt to poke at the Fed, especially one that includes the couplet “Hope your models break/bet that beard is fake.” The real Mr. Hubbard was traveling and could not be reached for comment.

Category: Federal Reserve, Music

Existing Home Sales Data (California Real Estate: On Sale!)

Sales of existing homes surprised to the upside yesterday. But one data point does not make a trend. This is the first rise (sequential monthly change) after 5 straight months of falling Home Sales. And that’s before we examine the data.

Before you declare the end of the housing slow down, consider:

- Existing Home sales actually slipped vs. last year by -0.7%; The reported gain was over last month’s data;

- the Inventory of unsold homes soared 7 percent in March, hittting an all-time record; There are now 3.19 million existing homes for sale, or  5.5 months’ supply; That’s the largest inventory since July 1998

- Existing homes edged up 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
6.92 million units; (we know that seasonally adjusted data is not always accurate)

- Year over year, the Northeast and Midwest gained, while the previously hot housing markets in the South and the West slipped;

- median home prices are still rising, albeit nmore slowly — up 7.4% year over year, to $218,000.

Here’s a data point that has me scratching my head:  Why are there different numbers for the year-over-year changes for seasonally and not seasonally adjusted?  Was this March somehow in a different season than last year’s March? I am perplexed.

Note that data for existing home sales comes from National Association of Realtors, a group that is certainly an interested party; Of course, as a homeowner, investor, and someone with a public bearish tilt for the second half, I’m hardly objective myself (hey, I try). But this oddity — down -0.5% for the not seasonally adjusted year over year versus down -0.7% for the seasonally adjusted year over year — is beyond my comprehension.

So much for the hard data on existing sales; Today, we get New Home Sales. Recall our prior admonishments that monthly New Home Sales Data are unreliable; look instead to a moving average.

Let’s move onto some anecdotal evidence.  A friend writes:

"Flop! Wow, KB running blue light specials in California. Not surprising,
Chico area was rated one of the most overvalued markets in the country. Houses
in the $200k space.  When was the last time you saw that in California? "

 
Oak Knoll Place Live Oak, CA

Oak Knoll Place Slideshow

Here’s the sales pitch:

"Oak Knoll Place in Live Oak is located in a beautiful
community near the majestic Sutter Buttes. With easy access to Highway 99, it is
ideally located for easy access to Sacramento, Lake Tahoe, Reno and a wide
variety of recreational opportunities. Yuba City and Marysville are
approximately 10 minutes south, Chico is approximately 35 miles north and the
Gray Lodge Wildlife area is approximately 10 minutes west. Live Oak has a
quaint, small-town atmosphere with many nearby recreational water activities,
including the Feather River, Yuba River and Sacramento River. Prices starting
from the High $200′s.
"

I don’t know Live Oak, but houses like that in California are hard to imgaine . . .

More after the jump.

Sources:
Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in March
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
WASHINGTON (April 25, 2006)
http://www.realtor.org/PublicAffairsWeb.nsf/Pages/MarchEHS06?OpenDocument

Existing Home Sales  data
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL0603EHS.pdf/$FILE/REL0603EHS.pdf

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Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Real Estate

More evidence: Fed Pause Not Good For Stocks

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Investing

Smackdown: Fleckenstein vs Yardeni

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

After Final Discount Rate Hike

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets

Fed Halt Now Baked into the Cake

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Fed Minutes

Category: Federal Reserve

One Last Comment on M3

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

Mortgages, Foreclosures & the Fed

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Real Estate

Do We Have Inflation?

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation