Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

Potential Outcomes of Fed Meeting

Brian Reynolds, Chief Market Strategist of M.S. Howells & Co., makes the following outcome based analysis:

We think there are four potential outcomes, based on a combination of Fed action and language. In order of what we think the initial stock price response will be today at 2:15 from the best to the worst, we think they are:

1) No tightening and language that says they are stopping;

2) No tightening and language that indicates wait and see;

3) 25bp tightening and language that says they are stopping;

4) 25bp tightening and language that says wait and see;

I think the most likely possibilities are #s 2 or 3; I usupect that many people are expecting #1.

The Fed funds futures have been all over the place: Last week, we were looking at a 40% chance of a hike; Yesterday, we were near 18%, and today, that has ticked up to 23%.

To quote Brian, "while this market is leaning heavily toward no tightening today, that is far from being fully priced in."

Category: Federal Reserve, Markets, Trading

What interest-rate action should the Fed take?

Category: Federal Reserve, Psychology

What are Inflation Expectations?

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

Hey Bernanke, What Up?

Category: Federal Reserve, Psychology

What are the Odds of a Recession?

Category: Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Careful What You Wish For: Perhaps the Fed Should Raise After all

Category: Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Psychology

NFP: Final Piece in Fed Puzzle?

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets

Short versus Long Term: The Topping Process at Work

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, RR&A, Technical Analysis, Trading

Tension Between Incoming Data and Forecast

Category: Consumer Spending, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Real Estate