Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

Chart of the Week: Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)

Maybe this will help explain the street’s obsession with running any and every piece of data is through a “Fed lens . . .”

As the chart below shows, monthly gains this Fed cycle show two distinct phases: From March 2003 until the June 2004, while the Fed was either easing or held rates at 1%, the S&P’s total return was 39%, or a 2.7% monthly average (in Red, below).

Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)


Sources: Barron’s and Bob Bronson

Since then, the S&P has generated weaker returns — about 18%, or less than 0.6% a month (in Blue, above).


Random Items

The New Rules Of Real Estate

H-1B Visa Debate        

Labor Shortage in China May Lead to Trade Shift

Longer-Term Comparison of Housing Prices in Europe and the US

Survivor Bias and Improper Measurement in the Mutual Fund

The New York Times Website Redesign (follows the WSJ’s)

Barbarians of suburbs target French Jews


Quote of the Day: 

“A bull market tends to bail you out of all your mistakes. Conversely, bear markets make you PAY for your mistakes.” 
-Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Psychology

Fed Gets New Excuse to Keep Tightening Rates

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve

“The squalls never matter until they hit”

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Real Fed Fund Rates

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

So much for “One and Done”

Category: Federal Reserve

Famous Last Words

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

New Real Estate Phase: Repricing Houses Downwards?

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Markets, Real Estate

Goodbye M3

Category: Federal Reserve

Exisiting Home Sales Pop

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Real Estate

Does the CPI Reflect Reality?

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation