Posts filed under “Federal Reserve”

Dear Ben: Better Pace Yourself . . .

Dear Ben,

If I might be so bold as to assume we can be on a first-name basis, let me be among of the first to say, congrats on the new gig!

You have been quite the busy ex-Fed chairman, what with the new job and office at Brookings and a red hot new eponymous blog. Today we learned you entered into a consulting deal with Citadel, Kenneth Griffin’s $25 billion hedge fund. I feel safe in assuming that as a sharp student of economic theory you made sure to let market forces dictate your compensation. There’s only a limited supply of ex-Fed chiefs and the demand is huge.


After eight years of thankless duty as head of the world’s most important central bank, no one will begrudge your efforts to monetize the insights and experience you gained there. I am sure your attorneys vetted this arrangement, and there are no obvious conflicts of interest. But be aware that this has the appearance of the usual Washington-Wall St. revolving door; some critics may not be mollified by the fact that the Fed was never Citadel’s regulator.

Nevertheless, all of this activity is starting to look a bit frenetic. Allow me to share some unsolicited advice:

Pace yourself!

You are going to burn out if you’re not careful. As your Fed predecessors Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan have shown, you are likely to have a long post-chairmanship ahead of you. You don’t want to risk an early burnout from taking on too much too soon. It’s a real possibility, not something to be shrugged off.

The good news is that Griffin by most accounts is a good boss; people seem to really like working at Citadel. The bad news is . . .

Continues here: Dear Ben Bernanke: Pace Yourself and Have Fun




Category: Federal Reserve, Humor, Philosophy, Weblogs

Fed: “Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?”

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

How much weight does the FOMC put on inflation vs unemployment?

From Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.: When I discuss the timing of Fed liftoff with clients it is essentially a debate about how much weight the FOMC puts on inflation and how much weight they put on the unemployment rate. If you believe they put a high weight on inflation, then they will not raise rates anytime…Read More

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere . . .

Source: BAML, Fiscal Times     I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal — to investors, to the economy…Read More

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Atlanta Fed’s Forecast for 2015 Q1

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

The Fed’s Hidden Message Contained Within the Dots . . .

Of all the maddening things about this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the single most annoying is the hoopla surrounding the so-called dot plot. It even has its own Twitter hashtag: #Dotplot. The dot plot is a chart that shows the expectations of each FOMC member — absent their names — for where they believe the…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, UnGuru

The Fed — Drunken Coxswain of the SS America

The Fed – Drunken Coxswain of the SS America Paul L. Kasriel The Econtrarian, March 17, 2015     Back on January 25, I penned a piece entitled “The Fed – Lucky or Smart?”. In that commentary I argued that the Fed was managing the supply of total thin-air credit, i.e., the sum of commercial…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Art Cashin: Fed Actions In 2004 (“Patience”)

Form Strategas by way of Art Cashin of UBS:   Everything old is new again. Here’s an interesting surprise from Jason’s people at Strategas, courtesy of my good friend and remote FoF member, Alan Battles of Salt Lake City. (Fed statements 2004.) Please note the “patient” in the March statement.

Category: Federal Reserve