Posts filed under “Finance”

The (F)utility of GDP?

Interesting argument here by Richard Posner on the (f)utility of GDP.

Money shot:

“But it is necessary to emphasize that it [GDP] is just a starting point. I disagree with economists who say the “recession” ended in the third quarter. The depression (as I think we should call it if only because of its enormous potential political consequences) has caused massive unemployment with all the associated anxieties and hardships, has greatly reduced household wealth, has caused private investment to turn negative, has cost the government trillions of dollars in lost tax revenues and recovery expenditures (TARP, the fiscal stimulus, the mortgage-relief programs, the auto bailouts, etc.), has undermined belief in free markets and altered the line between government and business in favor government, and is threatening a future inflation while deepening our dependence on foreign lenders.

To view a change in GDP from negative to positive as signifying the end of a depression (by which criterion the Great Depression ended in 1933 and again in 1938) is to misunderstand the utility of GDP as a measure of economic activity.

Worth a read . . .

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Finance

Austrian bank collapse furthers fears of contagion

The Austrian government has nationalized the insolvent bank Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA). The financial institution, which has 40 billion Euros in assets, is the country’s sixth largest bank. But, in relative terms, this is a very large bankruptcy – using GDP at purchasing power parity, an American HGAA would have assets of $2.5 trillion,…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Currency, Finance

The Greatest Deception in the History of Finance

What is the greatest deception in the history of finance?  Depending upon your perspective, some entities and events of deception that come to mind might include corporate accounting scandals, rogue traders, Ponzi schemes, and various entities and events related to the financial crises (market bubbles) throughout history. “The greatest hazard of all, losing one’s self,…Read More

Category: Finance, Psychology

New York vs Singapore vs London: Best Financial Center?

Fascinating stuff: “New York has withstood the worst economic crisis in seven decades and remains the leading global financial center, followed by Singapore, which topped London as investors’ preferred place for doing business, according to Bloomberg Global Poll. Twenty-nine percent of respondents in the quarterly poll of investors, traders and analysts who subscribe to the…Read More

Category: Finance

Afternoon Reading

A few interesting reads for your Tuesday: • Goldman Sachs: U.S. Stocks Primed for Takeovers (Bloomberg) • Climbing the Golden Wall of Worry (Barron’s) • Zen Lessons in Market Analysis (Hussman) • Home rescue plan delaying, not solving crisis (Reuters) • End the war on drugs, start the legalization (Marketwatch) • The Years of Magical…Read More

Category: Finance, Financial Press, Markets

StockTwits and the Power of Social Leverage

“The Human Ticker”

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Source:
“The Human Ticker”: StockTwits and the Power of Social Leverage
Aaron Task
Aug 26, 2009 04:13pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/311907/”The-Human-Ticker”-StockTwits-and-the-Power-of-Social-Leverage

Category: Finance, Technology, Video

Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You?

My quote:

“This is a trading rally not a multi-year rally,” he says. Eventually something’s got to give: “We’ve never had six-month period before where we’ve lost two million jobs and the market’s gained 50%,” he says. “That’s simply unprecedented.”

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Source:
Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You?
Peter Gorenstein
Yahoo Tech Ticker, August 21, 2009 08:00am EDT

http://bit.ly/4ak0hM

Category: Finance, Video

Falling Imports versus Falling Exports (GDP = -2.38%)

I noted earlier that the oddity of imports versus exports calculation would produce a positive contribution to GDP. Let’s look at the details of this, and find a way to understand what this means. First, off conceptualize the difference between what imports and exports are. At the most basic level, Imports represent our consumption of…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Finance

There will be some good news and some bad news this morning at 8:30. That’s when GDP will be released. The Good News will be that we are no longer contracting at the painful rate of 6% annually; Call it the end of the Freefall period we saw from September 2008 to March 2009. The…Read More

Category: Economy, Finance

Withholding Taxes Chart (July 15, 2009)

We have not run these charts from Matt Trivisonno in some time;  they are simply jaw dropping: > >

Category: Economy, Finance, Taxes and Policy