Posts filed under “Financial Press”

Beware Wall Street’s Happy Talk

Over at Marketwatch, Paul Farrell sifts through a book (sitting on my shelf) and pulls out these embarrassing quotes.

15 reminders of how happy talk misled us a decade ago

  1. October 1999: James Glassman, author “Dow 36,000.” “What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the market. We’re going to reach a point where stocks are correctly priced, and we think that’s 36,000 … It’s not a bubble. Far from it. The stock market is undervalued.” (Fact: dot-com PE’s were astronomical, most over 40)
  2. December 1999: Joseph Battipaglia, market analyst. “Some fear a burst Internet bubble, but our analysis shows that Internet companies account for only 7% of the overall Nasdaq market cap but carry expected long-term growth rates twice those of other rapidly growing segments within tech.” (Fact: Internet Index lost two-thirds within six months.)
  3. December 1999: Larry Wachtel, Prudential. “Most of these stocks are reasonably priced. There’s no reason for them to correct violently in the year 2000.” (Fact: Nasdaq lost 50% in 2000.)
  4. December 1999: Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities. “I’m not saying this is a straight line up. I’m not saying you can’t have pauses. I’m saying any kind of declines, buy them!” (Fact: He also predicted a 14,000 Dow by year-end 2000, and an 11-year bull.)
  5. February 2000: Larry Kudlow, CNBC host. “This correction will run its course until the middle of the year. Then things will pick up again, because not even Greenspan can stop the Internet economy.” (Fact: This faux economist is still hosting a cable show.)
  6. April 2000: Myron Kandel, CNN. “The bottom line is, before the end of the year, the Nasdaq and Dow will be at new record highs.” (Fact: In September he even predicted a rally to 12,000 by election day 2000.)
  7. September 2000: Jim Cramer, Mad Money host. “SUNW probably has the best near-term outlook of any company I know.” (Fact: Within four months Sun Microsystems dropped from $60 to $30. Down to $10 in a year. Below $3 in two years.)
  8. November 2000: Louis Rukeyser on CNN. “Over the next year or two” the stock market “will be higher, and I know over the next five to 10 years it will be higher.” (Fact: The market continued sinking, we fell into a recession, and tech lost 70% within two years.)
  9. December 2000: Jeffrey Applegate, Lehman Strategist. “The bulk of the correction is behind us, so now is the time to be offensive, not defensive.” (Fact: A sucker’s rally.)
  10. December 2000: Alan Greenspan. “The three- to five-year earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of flattening in recent months, have generally held firm. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued capital deepening and sustained growth.” (Fact: In 2008 he admitted he misled America.)
  11. January 2001: Suze Orman, financial guru. “In the low 60s here, I think the QQQ, they’re a buy. They may go down, but if you dollar-cost average, where you put money every single month into them, I think, in the long run, it’s the way to play the Nasdaq.” (Fact: You lose — the QQQ lost 60% more by October 2002.)
  12. March 2001: Maria Bartiromo, CNBC anchor. “The individual out there is actually not throwing money at things that they do not understand, and is actually using the news and using the information out there to make smart decisions.” (Fact: Maria sounds more like a writer for The Onion.)
  13. April 2001: Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs. “The time to be nervous was a year ago. The S&P then was overvalued, it’s now undervalued.” (Fact: The markets continued down for another 18 months.).
  14. August 2001: Lou Dobbs, CNN. “Let me make it very clear. I’m a bull, on the market, on the economy. And let me repeat, I am a bull.” (Fact: The market was actually in bear territory for another year as the Dow and Nasdaq lost another third.).
  15. June 2002: Larry Kudlow, CNBC host. “The shock therapy of a decisive war will elevate the stock market by a couple thousand points.” (Fact: For Larry, war is just another “economic stimulus program.” He also said the Dow would hit 35,000 by 2010.)

Quite amazing.

>

Previously:
The Folly of Forecasting
Barry Ritholtz
Apprenticed Investor Series
The Street.com, 06/07/05 – 01:05 PM EDT

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/comment/barryritholtz/10226887.html

Source:
Don’t buy Wall Street’s latest con
Paul B. Farrell
MarketWatch, 7:14 p.m. EST Jan. 5, 2009

http://tinyurl.com/happytalk

Category: Financial Press, Humor, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Ann Coulter’s New Book

This morning, I caught the Shrill Blond Harpy on CBS. I have no patience for her absurdities, and I won’t mention her book by name. However, I will reference this not-safe-for-work blog posts, which I find to be utterly hysterical: I f&*% ANN COULTER IN THE ASS, HARD Back in Ann Coulter’s Ass-Saddle Again Enjoy…Read More

Category: Books, Financial Press, Markets, Politics

WSJ Video: End of Wall Street

> Excellent 3 part video series from the WSJ about the end of the modern era of American Investment Banking. You can stream all three parts here: End of Wall Street There are some errors of emphasis — the usual wrong-headed over-emphasis on Fannie/Freddie, the discussion on Clinton/Bush desire for expanding home ownership, as if…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Derivatives, Financial Press

Video-o-rama: Ring out the old, ring in the new

Although this is a holiday-shortened trading week, there has certainly not been a lack of video clips hitting the airwaves. A number of these review the historically brutal year that has just drawn to a close. Others attempt to cast light on the outlook for 2009, debating whether markets will stabilize, or at least be less ugly than 2008.

Also featuring prominently is a fair bit of footage on the rapidly deteriorating situation in China. Let’s see what the Year of the Ox will bring – the Ox after all is “a sign of prosperity through fortitude and hard work”, according to Wikipedia.

A few of the more interesting clips that have attracted my attention are shared below. All the material is worth watching, but do make a special effort to watch the Jim Rogers video (even though it runs for almost 20 minutes). On a lighter note, John Paczkowski’s “2008 – the year in wisecracks” is also not to be missed.

CNBC: 2008 in review
“CNBC looks back at the top stories from the past year, with CNBC’s Bill Griffeth.”
a-look-back-on-2008.jpg

Source: CNBC, December 30, 2008.

Read More

Category: BP Cafe, Economy, Financial Press, Markets

The Five Worst Days of 2008

You know it’s been a bad year when you’re arguing about what the five worst days were. Between the massive market fluctuations and the biggest banks going belly up, it’s hard to know where to start. From a crowded field of contenders, here are The Big Money’s five biggest buzz-killers.

Source:
The Five Worst Days of 2008: Relive the disaster.
By Win Rosenfeld
Big Money, December 30, 2008 – 5:47pm

http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/video/2008/12/30/five-worst-days-2008

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Video

MSM Begins to Embrace YouTube

It used to be there were two kinds of MSM video in the world: Embeddable and Non-embeddable.

Embeddable is designed to be shared, and is easily inserted into blogs and social media. Non-embeddable is old school, seeking to drive traffic to a primary site.

Yes, you can capture and embed any video, via a few HTML tricks (like using Frames) or by using a few code tricks to pirate someone else’s stream, but 1) its a pain in the arse to do; and b) if they don’t want their videos publicized, well then, suit yourself, I’ll comply.

On the Embeddable side there is DJ (WSJ, Barrons and Marketwatch), Business Week, TDS, Charlie Rose, TED, Colbert, amongst others.

Non embeddable include NYT, CNBC, Bloomberg, MSN, PBS, Bill Moyers, etc.

However, the latest development in MSM video is the hybrid approach: Some major media sites, such as the New York Times and Bloomberg are creating their own channels on YouTube, and uploading all of their video content. Ever since the Times and Bloomberg have been using the embeddable video, I have been sifting thru their offerings and using a lot more of their stuff for TBP’s Video Channel.

Its the best of both worlds: They have their own content on their own sites, so it offers a [insert nonsense consultant babble here: fuller, rich multimedia blahblahblah] but they also get all the advantages of YouTube. Why shouldn’t they let Google pay for all of the hosting of video, get the benefit of blogs, facebook, social networks, etc. giving them a viral boost?

CNBC: Please Embed Your Videos: I am hoping that CNBC adopts the same model. There is a lot of great video content on their site amongst the volume of video, but its very difficult to find. You Tube allows viewers to separate the wheat from the chaff, take advantage of crowd voting, identify the higher rated stuff (i.e., separate the gems from the junk) and make it easier to embed.

MSN and CNBC both use old school, slow, non-flash based Windows Media. Congratualtions on your new 1998 technology!

CNBC has tentatively used YouTube to host commercials and promos for upcoming shows (http://www.youtube.com/user/CNBCtv). Somehow, I don’t see these commercials really catching viral fire. They are missing a tremendous opportunity to push their very best content, the gems hidden amidst the blahblahblah. Let it free!

>

Previously:
Bloomberg vs CNBC Video: Bleccch (March 2008)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/03/bloomberg-vs-cnbc-video-bleccch/

Read More

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Web/Tech

Who Are the Most Influential Liberal Thinkers?

A friend who edits a well know conservative business magazine is anticipating the new Obama administration. He wants to know what liberal thinkers will be influential in the coming years. He writes: Barry: We’re putting together a list of the 50 most influential liberal thinkers/intellectuals in America (academics, thinktankers, columnists, even politicians…) for a XXXXXX.com…Read More

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Politics

UPDATED: Worst Predictions for 2008

Special Schadenfreude edition: In case you missed it, here is our updated collections of the worst predictions for how 2008 would turn out: • The 10 Worst Predictions for 2008 (Foreign Policy) • The Worst Predictions About 2008 (Businessweek) • 2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS (New York Magazine) • Famous Last Words (CNBC) • The…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS

Via New York Magazine, comes this amusing collection of bad forecasts for the 2008 year: • Jon Birger, senior writer, Fortune Investors Guide 2008 Smart investors should buy [Merrill Lynch] stock before everyone else comes to their senses.” Merrill’s shares plummeted 77 percent. • Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital, Business Week’s Investment Outlook 2008…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Humor, Markets, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Internet Passes Newspapers as Info Source

I guess this makes it official: The net is now a bigger source of news than newspapers, according to Pew Research Center for the People & the Press: The internet, which emerged this year as a leading source for campaign news, has now surpassed all other media except television as a main source for national…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Web/Tech, Weblogs