Posts filed under “Financial Press”
Two articles in today’s WSJ seem to be battling each other:
While the rebound was a relief for battered stock investors, it complicated matters for those still trying to decide whether to get in or add new holdings. Higher prices have made stocks less of a screaming buy by several valuation measures.
For example, based on the last 12 months of operating earnings, the S&P 500 was changing hands late last week at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7, according to Morgan Stanley. That is still below the average trailing P/E of 17 for the last 25 years but up sharply from 10.5 in February.
Looking ahead to expected earnings for the next year, the story is less compelling for buying stocks. The S&P 500 was at a forward P/E of 14.5 late last week compared with a 25-year average of 15, according to the Morgan Stanley data. But many investors are reluctant to put too much weight on the forward P/E ratio during a period of significant uncertainty about the earnings outlook.
Versus this article:
Investors are aggressively piling back into markets shunned as too risky just a few weeks ago — driving up stocks in the developing world and raising concerns that the euphoria may be overdone.
As fears of a deepening global recession are pushed aside by expectations of recovery, investors have rediscovered their appetite for risk in places ranging from Brazil and China to Russia. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index is up 75% since its October lows, and across the emerging-market world, stocks are up 50% since the beginning of March, according to the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which tracks 23 markets.
Interesting contrast . . . Meanwhile, Dow off 135, S&P down 1.5%, Nasdaw barely negative, down a point.
Its official: Dylan Ratigan, formerly of Bloomberg and CNBC fame — as well as the Big Picture Conference – is going to MSNBC. Ratigan will launch a new program weekdays from 9am to 11 a.m., starting June 29. Variety reported that: Ratigan will host his own untitled show at 9 a.m. (ET) weekdays beginning June…Read More
Quite a few of you have asked for a forum that is not limited to whatever is floating my boat at the moment — so on the occasional weeknight, we will be running these open threads so you can range explore whatever subjects you wish (just keep it clean). I’ve given the editors the night…Read More
Here’s what caught my eye today: • Chairman Bernanke JEC: The economic outlook (Federal Reserve) • The bear is dead, long live the bear (Marketwatch) • Dick Bove: The Bureaucrat & The Academic (Rochdale Securities) • Inflation Nation (Allan Meltzer, NYT Op/Ed) • The Goldman Conspiracy (Marketwatch) • Chrysler’s bondholders are whining about Obama’s deal….Read More
Here’s what caught my eye today: • New York Fed Chairman’s Ties to Goldman Raise Questions (WSJ) • How banks got TBTF: Monsters, Inc. (The New Yorker) • U.S. Stocks Gain as S&P 500 Almost Erases Year-to-Date Decline (Bloomberg) • What Banks Are Still Missing: Trust (Time) • Sharpest U.S. Recession Since 1938: -1.9 Percent…Read More
There are two excellent, long pieces in the Sunday Times: • How Lehman Brothers Got Its Real Estate Fix: Many factors, of course, contributed to Lehman’s demise last fall. Near the end, it carried $25 billion in toxic residential mortgages. It was wildly overleveraged. And the federal government made the fateful decision not to rescue…Read More
Today’s readings: INVESTING & TRADING • Estimates of economic costs of a flu pandemic (Telegraph) The World Bank estimated in 2008 that a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion (£2 trillion) and result in a nearly 5pc drop in world gross domestic product. The World Bank has estimated that more than 70m people could die…Read More
Meet the Cassandras, 14 economists, bloggers, politicians and businesspeople of all political stripes who have become the most strident critics of President Obama’s stewardship of the economy . . . [I guess this means I am a bi-partisan critic]
Hard answers are in short supply. But here’s a guide to the prophets of doom. We’ve identified them, attempted to ascertain the moment when they first turned against the White House, and summarized the basic points of their critique. We’ve included economists, members of the business community, bloggers and, just for fun, two of the most anti-Obama Republicans we could dig up.
Yes, I am one of the 14:
BARRY RITHOLTZ: Author of financial blog the Big Picture; regular commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox and PBS; CEO and director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. Barry Ritholtz has ridden his blog’s huge popularity to a bookstore near you. Keep your eye out for “Bailout Nation.”
Earliest critique: Jan. 29, 2009
Stimulus: Too small.
Banking plan: Will not work. Nationalization in the form of “prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization is the fastest way to fix the banking system.”
Most hurtful quote: In response to Geithner’s statement that “We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we’d like to do our best to preserve that system,” Ritholtz exploded: “No! Defending these idiots was your old gig. In the new job, you no longer work for the cretins responsible for bringing down the global economy. Please stop rationalizing their behavior, and preserving the status quo!”
My big criticism of Obama is not his policies, but his appointments of Larry Summers and Tim Geithner. These two may end up being the Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld of the Obama administration.
Nice company to be in, too. Here’s the rest of the 14:
Finally! I have, over the years, exhorted Dow Jones to make the very best feature of the ILX service — the Dow Jones Market Talk feed — a blog. They have done so, and now (huzzah!) its officially launched: > > I am drunk with power! I demand something, and a mere a decade later,…Read More