Posts filed under “Financial Press”

Analysts Overstate Earnings Once Again

General072808
We have been noting that earnings expectations are way too high for the second half of the year (Q3 +20%, Q4, +50%).

It turns out that they were also way too high for Q2:

"Halfway through earnings season, banks are still a drag, tech firms are doing OK while the overall outlook remains cloudy.

With 249 of the S&P 500 companies reporting results, second-quarter profits are on track to decline 17.9% vs. a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters.

"I’d rate (earnings so far) as pretty bad," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. S&P forecast a 10% drop at the start of the quarter but now sees about a 20% shortfall, he said."

Interestingly enough, the chart of earnings from IBD also includes a line for earnings ex-financials

If they were trying to illuminate the earnings picture, they might have also shown earnings ex-energy. As Bloomberg noted earlier this quarter, "Take away Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips and profits at U.S. companies are the worst in at least a decade."

One would think showing an ex-negative might be balanced by showing the ex-positive. (One would be wrong)

And it is somewhat odd that I don’t recall IBD showing SPX earnings in 2005-07 period ex-financials. If they were truly astute, they might have shown how artificially pumped up earnings were over that period. Had they done so, it would have revealed exactly how artificial those profits were, and could have saved their readers untold billions.

No matter. Such is the money losing ways of the perennial cheerleaders. Read and watch them at your own financial risk . . .

>

Previously:
S&P500 Profits Ex 3 Oil Cos = Awful (May 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/sp500-ex-energy.html

S&P500 ex-Risk (November 2007) 
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/11/sp500-ex-risk.html

Source:
S&P Earnings So Far Falling Short Of Q2 Projections 
ED CARSON
INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY, 7/25/2008
http://investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=16&issue=20080725

Yahoo version:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20080725/bs_ibd_ibd/20080725general;_ylt=AsXoU7pADMvBKUZx1OAKreWyBhIF

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Financial Press

Quote of the Day: Rampant Capitalism ?

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Financial Press

Those Damn Short Sellers Are Just Killing It!

Category: Financial Press, Short Selling, Trading

All is Well . . . ALL IS WELL

Category: Credit, Earnings, Financial Press

Capitulation? The Evidence is Decidely Mixed

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, Trading

American Debt

Category: Credit, Financial Press, Web/Tech

New York Times Fawns Over Erin Burnett

Category: Financial Press

Its Unanimous: Banks Have Bottomed!

Category: Contrary Indicators, Credit, Dividends, Financial Press, Valuation

DON’T PANIC (Again !)

“DON’T PANIC” – Words inscribed in large, friendly letters on front cover of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, the ultimate compendium of practical knowledge on practically any conceivable subject, and the most popular book in the known universe. This is partly because it is slightly cheaper than the Encyclopedia Galactica, but is mostly because…Read More

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Financial Press, Psychology

Breaking News: Herb Greenberg Resigns CNBC

Here’s some sad news that has yet to hit the wires: Herb Greenberg has resigned as a full-time contributor to CNBC. (No, he’s not going to Fox Business).

Here’s what Herb wrote to CNBC:

Just an FYI: I’ve pulled myself out of the contributor
rotation to focus exclusively on my business, which has become
more-than-a-fulltime job. It wasn’t an easy decision to walk away. I’ll still be
available from time to time as a non-contributor guest, as time permits, and I
remain committed to CNBC.
 

Herb will be missed on CNBC — he is a skeptical voice of reason who oftentimes doubts the nonsense spin we hear all too frequently from corporate executives. And, he’s been proven right far too many times to ignore. He will be missed.

Herb’s new firm is called Greenberg Meritz, and the focus will be "Bridging Financial Journalism and Forensic Analysis."

We wish him luck at his new venture, and if he ever wants to get some info out to a wider distribution, our doors are always open . . .

Click for video
Herb_fairgrounds

Category: Financial Press, Video