Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”
The pushback from the weekend’s WaPo column was surprisingly fierce.
If you can tell me what asset classes will perform best each year in advance, than by all means over-weight that sector. But if you are like the other 99.99% of investors, you are probably better off saying to yourself “Why should I guess when I can own them all?
The charts below show returns for asset classes and specifically for fixed income.
Fixed Income Sector Returns
Click for ginormous table
Source: J.P. Morgan
The Bond Market and Inflation David R. Kotok June 12, 2013 “A knowledge of the laws of prices is essential for personal business success because every business transaction involves a guess as to the future of prices. Such knowledge not only is essential for the individual but also is vital for national stability….Read More
The US 10 yr Constant Maturity Yield Click to enlarge Souce: Global Financial Data The move in the 10 year yields has led to all sorts of speculation as to the underlying cause. Since none of this is within our my control, all we can do is look at this from a longer…Read More
Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates
Negative Interest Rates David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors, May 30, 2013 There seems to be a debate at the European Central Bank (ECB). The issue is whether or not the ECB should impose a negative interest rate. I listened to the interview of Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France. His personal…Read More
Originally: Look Out Below, Spiking Yield Edition I am working on a longer piece today on how to invest after big rallies, but I had to address the increase in yields we are seeing this month: 10 Related Factors, Issues and Concerns Regarding Yield Increases 1) Large bond portfolios (think PIMCO, DoubleLine, etc). are getting…Read More
“In 1752, Prime Minister Henry Pelham converted the entire outstanding stock of British debt into consolidated annuities that would become known as consols. The consols paid interest on an annual basis just like regular bonds, but with no requirement that the government ever redeem them by repaying the face value.” -Slate Today we…Read More
Here is the S&P 500 composite vs US 10 yr yield to 1791. My goodness look at what they would look like if we could put in trend lines! Over the last couple of days, you have put up some rather interesting charts on the S&P 500 over the short term and they looked crazy….Read More
S&P 500 composite vs US 10 yr yield to 1791 (Logarithmic Chart) Click to enlarge Source: Global Financial Data Have a look above at the visual “Boom Bust nature” that the markets, with a little help fromt he Fed and Human Psychology — helps to create. If we overlaid a chart of volatilty, we…Read More
Kudos to Albert Edwards for ignoring Career Risk and making a fairly outrageous call.
I question whether this sort of analysis is brave or stubborn or brave (or both) — but more importantly what clients are supposed to do with it.
The rest of Albert’s call: The S&P500 is going to fall 75% to 450, the Sub-1% US 10 year, and Gold > $10,000.