Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”
One of the oldest rules on Wall Street is, don’t fight the Fed. When the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, you want to be long equities, and when it is tightening, get out of the way. This has been a cause for concern since the Fed began talking of tapering its program of quantitative easing and ending its zero interest-rate policy.
But the knee-jerk response to an over-simplified rule of thumb might be wrong. When we look at the actual data — what happens to stocks when rates rise — we find a very different set of results than this heuristic suggests. Before I get to the numbers let’s look at both the positive and negative sides of increasing rates.
It is understandable that there is concern with a rising-rate environment. Often, higher rates signal an overheating economy, higher costs of credit to purchase goods and services and a potential profit squeeze as operating expenses rise. When the Fed is in its inflation-fighting mode, too much tightening will cause a recession.
However, there are also positives to increasing interest rates. Rates are merely the price of capital. Higher demand for capital means the economy is strengthening, as consumers borrow to spend on goods and to buy homes and companies seek to hire and do more investment spending. Higher rates also mean the risk of deflation is decreasing. Lastly, it reflects a normalization of Fed interventions, which today would suggest that the credit crisis is behind us.
Tapering Is Now Tightening David R. Kotok July 19, 2014 For a long time, as we saw it, tapering and the threat of tapering (as in last year’s taper tantrum) did not constitute tightening. Today we explore why we believe the situation has now changed. In order to understand why tapering was not…Read More
The first show was an interview with Jeff Gundlach, who has become one of the bond market’s most influential and savvy investors. His firm, Double Line Capital, manages about $50 billion.
Over the weekend, the stream of the one hour radio show was posted to Soundcloud.
The full & uncut Interview with Jeff Gundlach is now available. Its about double the length of the radio show. It includes:
• Short intro/explanation of what the show is;
• Full one hour radio interview (Its commercial-free and clocks in at 36 minutes)
• Full half hour podcast.
All told, its over an hour (1:09) of great Gundlachian content. I am very pleased with how this came out!
You can download the entire thing here (click, then scroll down, then right click “Download this link”).
Play full Radio + Podcast here:
Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks William Bednar and Mahmoud Elamin Average interest rate risk in the banking system has been increasing since the end of the financial crisis and is almost back to its pre-recession level. But the increase has not occurred uniformly at large and small banks. At big banks, risk, while…Read More
Inquiring minds want to know: What is up with Yields ? Yesterday, Seabreeze Partners fund manager Doug Kass sent me a Bloomberg chart showing the 20 lowest developed nations’ 10 year bond yield. Astonishingly, the United States is number 16. The US Treasury 10 year bond yields a little better more than Norway (#15),…Read More
Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates