Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Nobody Likes Bonds!

Earlier this week, we noted that “the Consensus Hates Bonds.” That is a small part of the reason my firm decided to increase our exposure to specific types of fixed income this year after having been significantly underweight bonds in 2013. I mentioned we added preferreds and corporate fixed income, obtaining that exposure primarily though…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Sentiment

Surprising Consensus On Cross Asset Research

Source: iShares by BlackRock   If you want a sense of the consensus view of equities, this recent chart from BlackRock might provide some insight.   Continues here    

Category: Asset Allocation, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

A (Somewhat) Bursting Bond Bubble

Another holiday present from Goldman Sachs: Source: Goldman Sachs, “Top of Mind”, December 18, 2013.

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

From Secrecy to Transparency at the Fed

Via Goldman Sachs: Source: Goldman Sachs, “Top of Mind”, December 18th, 2013

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Crowding In – Bond Interest Rates

Crowding In – Bond Interest Rates David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors, December 14, 2013     We are watching bond market volatility as Treasury bonds struggle with questions about what the Fed (Federal Reserve) is going to do. Only the passage of time and improvement of communication from the new Fed leadership will resolve this…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off?

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Puerto Rico Update

Puerto Rico Update David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors October 29, 2013       There has been a recent flurry of activity regarding Puerto Rico, involving their debt, rating agency views of that debt, the bond insurers that have been insuring their debt, the state-specific mutual funds that are holding Puerto Rico debt, and the…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Historical Global Yields & Defaults, 1800 – Present

Yields and default Click to enlarge     Now that we managed to avoid default, let’s look at some historical examples of Sovereign default. 1. United States 2013 2. Germany 1938,1948 3. Japan 1942, 1946-1952 4. France 8 times between 1558-1788. Last one in 1812 5. Italy 1940. Almost daily speculation of another default since 2008 6. Spain 1809, 1820, 1931,…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Really, really bad calls

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors, October 16, 2013     Puerto Rico is not the federal government. It is an important debt problem. Some readers saw the Barron’s front-page article on Puerto Rico and its financial problems. The details of the debt burdens of Puerto Rico make for an ugly picture. Puerto Rico…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank