Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”

From Secrecy to Transparency at the Fed

Via Goldman Sachs:


Source: Goldman Sachs, “Top of Mind”, December 18th, 2013

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Crowding In – Bond Interest Rates

Crowding In – Bond Interest Rates David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors, December 14, 2013     We are watching bond market volatility as Treasury bonds struggle with questions about what the Fed (Federal Reserve) is going to do. Only the passage of time and improvement of communication from the new Fed leadership will resolve this…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off?

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Puerto Rico Update

Puerto Rico Update David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors October 29, 2013       There has been a recent flurry of activity regarding Puerto Rico, involving their debt, rating agency views of that debt, the bond insurers that have been insuring their debt, the state-specific mutual funds that are holding Puerto Rico debt, and the…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Historical Global Yields & Defaults, 1800 – Present

Yields and default Click to enlarge     Now that we managed to avoid default, let’s look at some historical examples of Sovereign default. 1. United States 2013 2. Germany 1938,1948 3. Japan 1942, 1946-1952 4. France 8 times between 1558-1788. Last one in 1812 5. Italy 1940. Almost daily speculation of another default since 2008 6. Spain 1809, 1820, 1931,…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Really, really bad calls

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors, October 16, 2013     Puerto Rico is not the federal government. It is an important debt problem. Some readers saw the Barron’s front-page article on Puerto Rico and its financial problems. The details of the debt burdens of Puerto Rico make for an ugly picture. Puerto Rico…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Global Systemic Risk

click for ginormous graphic Source: NYU VLAB   I mentioned NYU’s VLAB earlier, but one more trick I wanted to share: You can drill down by region or even country to see how much risk is in the system. Note that this is a function of both size and riskiness, i.e., a very small reckless…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Regulation

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

If Houses Traded Like Bonds

As the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 3 percent let’s take a look at the recent spike in mortgage rates and its micro impact on the housing market and average home buyer. The chart below shows 30-year fixed mortgage rates have increased 122 basis points since early May.  This translates into a 17 percent increase in…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Real Estate

Assert a Principle? Measure Market Risk?

Assert a Principle? Measure Market Risk? David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors September 5, 2013     “Assert a principle,” says our Secretary of State, John Kerry. So now we find ourselves in the throes of an unresolved national debate over whether the US should launch cruise missiles at unknown targets in Syria in order to…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank, War/Defense