Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”

4 Year Presidential Cycle: Bond edition

Last week, we looked at the 4 Year Presidential Cycle and equities, via Birinyi Associates. Today, we take a look at similar data as it applies to fixed income instruments:

"With so many investors concerned over interest rates, we wondered if they follow cyclical tendencies as well. The chart to the lower right plots the YTD percent change in the ten-year bond yield vs the average YTD change in ten-year yields during the second year of a presidential term. Like the chart for the S&P 500, this year is following a similar pattern to the average, although the magnitude of the move this year is considerably greater than the average move. This would imply that bond yields are near their peak for the year."

If the cycle holds true this year, bond yields should be heading lower in the second half, with allthat implies . . .

10 year bond change, 4 year cycle

10_year_bond_change_4_year_cycle

Source: Birinyi Associates, Inc.

Avg_change_10year_chart

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Politics, Psychology

Ignore Inverted/Flat Yield Curve at Your Own Risk

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

A Deceptively Simple Timing System

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Data Analysis, Earnings, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets, Technical Analysis

A Consensus is Developing: Blame Greenspan

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Markets, Psychology

Worst Case Scenarios: Why the Fed Tends to Overtighten

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

Yield Curve Inversion

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Technical Analysis

Dear God, Please stop talking about 1994-95

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Trading

WWGD?

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Psychology, Real Estate

SPX to the 10-year Yield Ratio

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Technical Analysis

To Pause or not to Pause

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation