Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”
Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank Securities calls out Wall Street’s bad forecasts on the 10 year bonds:
As we leave 2014 behind, professional forecasters are once again predicting that long rates will go up next year. As the chart below shows, this has been a pattern for the past decade. The latest Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that ten-year rates in 2015 will go up to 3%, see the last dotted line in the chart. Subtracting the average 12-month forecast error of 60bps from that number suggests that another estimate of where ten-year rates will be by the end of 2015 is 2.4%.
“Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales was misleading at best.” — New York Times No, this isn’t going to be a victory lap about the National Retail Federation and its always-wrong forecasts about holiday retail sales (that annual chest-pounding comes in January). Rather, this…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we take yet another at Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio. The print version had the headline Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out while online, it was Better Than All Weather Portfolio. Rather than merely criticize Robbin’s 55% bond, 15% commodity portfolio, I…Read More
Restoring Confidence in Reference Rates October 2, 2014 William C. Dudley, President and CEO, NY Fed Remarks at NYU Stern School of Business, New York City Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today.1 In my remarks today, I will focus on the development and use of reference rates for…Read More
Bill Gross, founder of Pimco, and its chief investment officer for the past 40 or so years, resigned last week. Rumor has it that he was but two steps ahead of a mutinous gang, swords out, planning to make him walk the plank. Gross was too quick and before the mutineers could force him, he…Read More