Posts filed under “Fixed Income/Interest Rates”

Wall Street Economists = Consistently Wrong on 10-year Rate

Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank Securities calls out Wall Street’s bad forecasts on the 10 year bonds:

As we leave 2014 behind, professional forecasters are once again predicting that long rates will go up next year. As the chart below shows, this has been a pattern for the past decade. The latest Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that ten-year rates in 2015 will go up to 3%, see the last dotted line in the chart. Subtracting the average 12-month forecast error of 60bps from that number suggests that another estimate of where ten-year rates will be by the end of 2015 is 2.4%.


Source: Deutsche Bank Securities


Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Really, really bad calls

The U.S. Economy Upshifts

  “Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales was misleading at best.” — New York Times   No, this isn’t going to be a victory lap about the National Retail Federation and its always-wrong forecasts about holiday retail sales (that annual chest-pounding comes in January). Rather, this…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing

The Fed Spectrometer

  Federal Reserve Hawks vs Doves   click for ginormous infographic Source: Bloomberg Briefs   Text only version is here  

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Better Than All Weather Portfolio . . .

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we take yet another at Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio. The print version had the headline Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out while online, it was Better Than All Weather Portfolio. Rather than merely criticize Robbin’s 55% bond, 15% commodity portfolio, I…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Muni Mania: A Timeline

Source: Bloomberg Briefs

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets, Really, really bad calls

Economics Indicators Dashboard

Here’s the monthly update from Russell:   click for interactive graphic Source: Russell Investments

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Markets

Fed Policy and Stock Outlook

Fascinating stuff here: The Easy Money’s Been Made: Fed Policy and Stock Outlook Source: Bloomberg Chart of the Day

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

U.S. Debt Held by Foreigners Hits Record $6.07 Trillion

Posted without comment: Source: Real Time Economics

Category: Credit, Data Analysis, Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Taxes and Policy

Restoring Confidence in Reference Rates

Restoring Confidence in Reference Rates October 2, 2014 William C. Dudley, President and CEO, NY Fed Remarks at NYU Stern School of Business, New York City       Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today.1 In my remarks today, I will focus on the development and use of reference rates for…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Bill Gross’s Farewell Letter to PIMCO

Bill Gross, founder of Pimco, and its chief investment officer for the past 40 or so years, resigned last week. Rumor has it that he was but two steps ahead of a mutinous gang, swords out, planning to make him walk the plank. Gross was too quick and before the mutineers could force him, he…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Fixed Income/Interest Rates