Posts filed under “Gold & Precious Metals”

Is This the End of the Secular Gold Bull?

In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher.

Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. J.C. Parets, a technical analyst at Eagle Bay Capital, notes: “This downtrend has been very strong over the past 30 months and is hard to fight.”

he key support level, according to Parets, is $1,180. Spot silver has already broken its major support level of about $19. Parets adds that this break in silver could auger a further decline for gold as well, including the mining companies. If you must be long on a precious metal, Parets suggest you consider palladium as an alternative to gold or silver.  Continues here

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Technical Analysis

Rolling Returns of Stocks & Gold

click for ginormous chart   The chart above shows the rolling returns for stocks and gold. Catherine Mulbrandon of Visualizing Economics writes: For the period 1928-2013, the average annual compound real return of stocks = 6.3% and gold = 2.0%. However, the price of gold was controlled by the government until the mid-70s when the…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Investing

The Rich Buy Real Estate; The Poor Want Gold

If you want to know what someone’s views of society are, ask what they believe is the best long-term investment. I am fascinated each year when Gallup Poll asks Americans to choose the best option among real estate, stocks and mutual funds, gold, savings accounts and CDs, or bonds. The results are a pop psychologist’s…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Investing, Psychology, Real Estate

Real Price of Gold Since 1791

click for ginormous graphic Source: Visualizing Economics   Earlier this year, we discussed the Lessons Learned from the Fall of Gold. That surprisingly generated some controversy despite the near 40% collapse from its 2011 peak.   Rather than spill a lot of ink onto the page, I wanted to direct your attention to the following…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation

History of Money

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Category: Currency, Digital Media, Gold & Precious Metals

Pushback: Lessons from Gold’s Rise & Fall

Last week, we published a 2,500-word opus on what lessons could be learned from the rise and fall of gold. There was lots of feedback on the general concept and many of the specifics. By and large, the response was positive, with most of the pushback coming from those who were long gold or other…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Gold & Precious Metals

Bitten by the Gold Bug? Some Lessons

>   I did something different with my Sunday Washington Post Business Section this week. Starting with the 2,500 word long form discussion I wrote for Bloomberg, I simplified this and edited it down to half that length. The print version had the headline Bitten by the gold bug? You’ll do well to heed the…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Gold & Precious Metals

Video: The Lessons of Gold’s Collapse


Source: Yahoo Finance

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Media, Video

10 Lessons Learned from Gold’s Epic Rise & Fall

This morning, I have a massive 2500 word piece at Bloomberg looking at the rise and fall of Gold.

The key to the discussion are the 10 lessons that we all can takeaway from that cycle and the experiences of Gold investors. Hopefully, these will make us each better investors in the future.

Here is the intro:

“It has been quite the ride for gold: from under $500 an ounce a decade ago, to above $1,900 in 2011, gold gained more than 400 percent. Since its peak of ~$1,921.15 on Sept. 6, 2011, however, the shine is off the yellow metal. Gold plummeted 38 percent, recently breaking below $1,200. Yesterday’s close is within 5 percent of the lows, at $1,241.

If a 20 percent drop is described as a bear market, and a 30 percent fall is called a crash — what do we call gold’s almost 40 percent plummet?

This column is not an “I told-you-so” or an exercise in “Goldenfreude” (describing a “delight in gold bugs’ collective pain”). Rather, it is an attempt to learn some investing lessons from the epic rise and horrific fall of gold.

As an investor, I am a gold agnostic: When used properly, the metal is a potentially valuable tool in an investment arsenal. There are times when it makes for a profitable part of a portfolio, as in the 2000s. There are periods when it is a speculative and dangerous trade — such as the 2010s. There have also been decades when it does nothing, earning no return, generating no income, essentially dead weight to a portfolio, as in the 1980s and 1990s…”

 

Full column after the jump:

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Category: Apprenticed Investor, Gold & Precious Metals

The Golden Dilemma

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Think Tank