Posts filed under “Gold & Precious Metals”

Is Gold Overdue for a Bounce?

Back in my days as a trader, I would peruse the lists of 52 week lows looking for reversal candidates. The key was finding an intelligent entry that had a very tight stop, so it presented a good risk reward. I am happy to risk one dollar to make three. Slowly build the position over that line in the sand, so any losses were manageable.

If you are a trader — and I no longer consider myself one — then you have to be wondering when Gold is going to bounce. It has plummeted on little inflation, a strong dollar and an improving economy. When the breathless narrative of hyper-inflation, collapsing fiat currency and end of the world failed to come about, Gold’s spectacular rise ended.

Now, it has free-fallen so far that a counter-trend rally is over due.

How do the typical counter-trend rallies work? Well, the forced selling by margin clerks and futures traders becomes exhausted. A distraction may capture the investing community’s collective attention, allowing some stabilization to occur. As prices stop falling, the fear falling asset holders have been living with dissipates. A little bit of good news, a small reversal in price, and the prior (now discredited) narrative reasserts itself.

Note this scenario is non specific — we see it in stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate and yes, Gold. Apple will run this one day, AIG is already enjoying its turnaround, as all former high flyers do. And if the underlying business model improves, the turnaround could be for real, and the bounce morphs into a new sustainable uptrend.

Here comes the bad news: The bounce in a commodity like Gold — or its primary trading vehicle, GLD — is less likely to achieve that sort of happy ending. The bull market is broken, the prior narrative has utterly failed, and is no longer taken seriously, except by yellow metal jihadists and other assorted suckers.

I was constructive on Gold last decade, but this decade (2011 – ) has not seen the circumstances that are supportive of Gold’s ongoing rise. Despite what some goldbugs have laughably said about me, I am agnostic about the metal, except when it is losing people lots of money. I do detest the narrative driven sales pitch that has caught so many suckers at prices appreciably higher than this.

So what about that bounce?

The charts below show two different ranges where gold can find a footing and rally. That is likely to present your next and perhaps last best exit. Barring some new developments — like all the gold in Fort Knox becoming irradiated — I do not expect to see a resumption of the 2001-11 uptrend.

I don’t have a crystal ball, so I do not make predictions as to where Gold will or will not go. But the weekly and monthly charts lay out two possibly scenarios below.

YMMV.

 

 

Gold Chart Weekly
click for larger chart
GLD weekly

Gold Chart Monthly
GLD monthly

 

Previously:
What Are Gold’s Fundamentals ? (April 15th, 2013)

12 Rules of Goldbuggery (April 16th, 2013)

Sell Out: “The Other Side” (April 22nd, 2013)

Are You an Investor or a Story Teller? (April 25th, 2013)

Category: Currency, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading

50 Year Chart: Stocks, Bonds & Gold

Click to enlarge   Yesterday, in response to our post on how wrong the public was back in this 2011 Gallup poll, the following suggestion was made: Which asset performed best is dependent on your definition of “long term”. 2011-2013 is at best medium term. Long term to most people means decades, 20 years or…Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Gold & Precious Metals, Investing, Technical Analysis

Gold Standard: 80 Years Gone Today

Su Keenan recaps today’s top commodity stories. She speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.”

The Gold Standard Died 80 Years Ago Today

June 5 (Bloomberg)

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Video

Which is a Better Inflation Hedge, Gold or Houses?

Source: Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day, Federal Housing Finance Agency     Here is something I never would have guessed at, via Dave Wilson of Bloomberg: If you want to be hedged against the risk of a pickup in inflation, you would be better off buying houses than gold. That’s according to Michael Hartnett, chief…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation, Real Estate

Albert Edwards: 10 Year Bond Yield Heading Below 1%

Click to enlarge

 

Kudos to Albert Edwards for ignoring Career Risk and making a fairly outrageous call.

I question whether this sort of analysis is brave or stubborn or brave (or both) — but more importantly what clients are supposed to do with it.

The rest of Albert’s call: The  S&P500 is going to fall 75% to 450, the Sub-1% US 10 year, and Gold > $10,000.

Godspeed.

 

Read More

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Gold & Precious Metals

Contextualizing Retracements By Time Frame

The meme of this morning was “Gold has already regained half of its losses.” That was the chatter I keep hearing. (The comment was blindly repeated by the usual suspects). As discussed earlier, I am now on all sorts of email lists informing me what a fantastic buying opportunity this drop was — but you…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Investing, Technical Analysis

Are You an Investor or a Story Teller?

I am fascinated by the pushback to the Goldbuggery post. It has provided an enjoyable and intriguing glimpse into the minds of a certain type of investor. The thought process of undisciplined traders, the people who invest based on a narrative is amazing (and a little sad). Our story thus far: On April 9th, I…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading

The Golden Rage

The price of gold plummets, even as deranged millionaire John Hodgman champions the timeless allure of a drab gray, crash-proof carcinogen.

Wednesday April 24, 2013, 05:54

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Video

Sell Out: "The Other Side"

  Reader:  “Is it just me or has Barry Ritzholtz gone over to the other side. I see him guest hosting Bloomberg more so maybe it just goes with the territory….I’m dismayed and don’t like it when these guys sell out. Roger Lowenstein and his article on Bernanke….in Atlantic Monthly. Just venting………” Fleckenstein: Lowenstein, who…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Rules

Sell Out: “The Other Side”

  Reader:  “Is it just me or has Barry Ritzholtz gone over to the other side. I see him guest hosting Bloomberg more so maybe it just goes with the territory….I’m dismayed and don’t like it when these guys sell out. Roger Lowenstein and his article on Bernanke….in Atlantic Monthly. Just venting………” Fleckenstein: Lowenstein, who…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Rules