Posts filed under “Index/ETFs”

Barron’s Asks: Bear Market Rally?

Barrons_indices_2In Barron’s The Trader column,
Kopin Tan asks: "Is the Stock Market’s recent resurgence just an ephemeral, bear-market rally?"

Before answering that, have a look at the chart at right. It accompanied his questions; the black lines are my own.

There are several things to be gleaned from this:

First, the Nasdaq remains the healthiest of the major indices. Thats could be due to strong sectors within it (i.e., Enterprise Software). Or it could be due to specific stock leadership, namely  — Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), or (BIDU).

Second, the down trend seems to be not yet quite vanquished. What was described by some as a breakout is now looking like it could turn out to be a false breakout. 

Third, the SPX and Dow are at critical levels — a failure at the trend line likely means more downside to come. And, the recent May highs appear to be a lower low to this old traders eyes.  Any failure at this level means more trouble ahead.

Last, a further failure at the March lows would be disastrous for the indices.

Your mileage may vary . . .

Oil, Unemployment Rise, Stocks Fall 
Barron’s June 9, 2008

Category: Index/ETFs, Technical Analysis, Trading

Odd Data Point: Tech Passes Finance in SPX

Category: Earnings, Finance, Index/ETFs, Markets, Valuation

Updating the Dow (top ticking Energy?)

The editors at DJ have made a few changes to the venerable index: Out are Honeywell (HON) — which I have owned since the GE deal fell apart, and Altria (MO) which I sill have a small position in from the late litigation era.

In are Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC), which I don’t. The charts  of the buy and sell signals below are rather interesting.

The adds of Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) late in 1999 top ticked the tech boom. Will the Chevron add do the same for energy?

Here’s the WSJ:

"Dow Jones & Co. announced that Bank of America Corp. and Chevron Corp. will replace Altria Group Inc. and Honeywell International Inc. in its benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average effective Feb. 19.

The change is the first in four years and reflects the index’s continued shift away from industrial firms and into other sectors such as energy and financial services.

Excluding thinly traded Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Bank of America and Chevron are the two biggest U.S. companies by market capitalization which currently aren’t in the Dow industrials."

Interestingly, I noticed our ratings on both drops were "Neutrals"; the adds were split: BAC was a buy, CVX was a sell . . . charts after the jump.

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Category: Index/ETFs, Markets, Technical Analysis

Russell Indices Rebalance Today

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Trading

Crude Remains Strong Despite Inventory Build

Category: Commodities, Energy, Index/ETFs, Psychology, War/Defense

Looking at the S&P500 (Relatively)

Category: Commodities, Currency, Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets

Which is Performing Better, the Dow or the S&P500 ?

Category: Data Analysis, Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets

Index Gains Distribution

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

50th Anniversary of the S&P 500

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets

Its not China, its the Economy (Stupid!)

Category: Commodities, Currency, Federal Reserve, Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets, Psychology