Posts filed under “Inflation”

Discuss: High Food Prices

High Food Prices Lead to Trade-offs Even in Upper-Income Household;
Stores Shrink Meat Packages, Push Inexpensive Cuts; Downgrade to Chicken at the Weekend Grill

 

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Source: WSJ

 

Category: Food and Drink, Inflation

Deflation Fears

Deflation Fear David R. Kotok August 26, 2014     A worldwide deflation fear is expanding and may actually be rampant. BCA Daily Insights (August 25, 2014) notes that, “out of 32 OEC countries, more than two-thirds have domestic inflation rates that fall short of 1%.” BCA analysts go on to argue that the worldwide…Read More

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Forecasting National Inflation Rates

Forecasting National Inflation Rates ©Thinkstock/Drazen_ By Silvio Contessi, Economist A recent line of research has established that global factors significantly correlate with national inflation rate movements, so much in fact that they can help forecast national inflation rates.1 A forthcoming Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review article2 follows this literature and estimates a one-factor…Read More

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Wrong Way Plosser

Hawks Crying Wolf: Charles Plosser of the Philadephia Fed; if you’ve been following these things, you know that Plosser has been warning about imminent inflation since the beginning of the crisis. He did it in 2008; he did it in 2009; he did it in 2010; he did it in 2011; I’m getting tired here,…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Really, really bad calls

Why Didn’t Inflation Collapse in the Great Recession?

Why Didn’t Inflation Collapse in the Great Recession? Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Raiden Hasegawa, and Frank Schorfheide Liberty Street Economics     GDP contracted 4 percent from 2008:Q2 to 2009:Q2, and the unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in October 2010. Traditional backward-looking Phillips curve models of inflation, which relate inflation to measures of “slack” in activity…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Inflation Was Much Higher Pre-Crisis than Post-Crisis

click for ginormous chart Source: FRED     This morning’s column on Inflation truthers led to some emailers insisting inflation numbers are much higher post crisis than pre. Sorry, but the data says that is simply not true. Play with the attached FRED XL spread sheets all you want, the data is hard to argue…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Inflation, Mathematics

Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More

Category: Inflation, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

What the FOMC Was Thinking . . .

Here is what the FOMC was looking at while debating the end of QE/ZIRP:   Will Holding Down Rates Spark Inflation Without Helping the Long-Term Unemployed? click for larger graphic Source: WSJ

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up William Bednar and Mehmet Pasaogullari After hovering in a narrow range between 1.0 percent and 1.6 percent for eight months straight, annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.0 percent in April. Part of the uptick is explained by food prices,…Read More

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank