Posts filed under “Inflation”

Inflation Was Much Higher Pre-Crisis than Post-Crisis

click for ginormous chart
fredgraph CPI food
Source: FRED

 

 
This morning’s column on Inflation truthers led to some emailers insisting inflation numbers are much higher post crisis than pre.

Sorry, but the data says that is simply not true.

Play with the attached FRED XL spread sheets all you want, the data is hard to argue with. (Same goes for energy, especially Oil), Cherry pick whatever time period you want. Tweaj the charts on FRED.

From 2000 to the end of 2008, Food at home averaged 3.00% year over year increases; since 2009 until today, its only been 1.78%.

With Oil, its much more dramatic: Oil averaged 24.9% year over year price increases from 2000 to 2008; Since 2009, its averaged a far more tame 6.5%.

Spreadsheets: 

Inflation Food at home FRED

inflation Oil FRED

 

Category: Data Analysis, Inflation, Mathematics

Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More

Category: Inflation, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

What the FOMC Was Thinking . . .

Here is what the FOMC was looking at while debating the end of QE/ZIRP:   Will Holding Down Rates Spark Inflation Without Helping the Long-Term Unemployed? click for larger graphic Source: WSJ

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up William Bednar and Mehmet Pasaogullari After hovering in a narrow range between 1.0 percent and 1.6 percent for eight months straight, annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.0 percent in April. Part of the uptick is explained by food prices,…Read More

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Central Bank Transparency Anchors Inflation Expectations

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Economy, Inflation, Think Tank

Why Has Core Inflation Slowed?

Source: Bloomberg Visual Data From Bloomberg Visual Data: A weakening in price growth over the past two years can largely be blamed on muted costs for health care, cars, clothing and financial services. Core PCE inflation running at 1.09 percent owes much of its small climb to housing-related prices. The rise in those costs, including…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Inflation

Real Price of Gold Since 1791

click for ginormous graphic Source: Visualizing Economics   Earlier this year, we discussed the Lessons Learned from the Fall of Gold. That surprisingly generated some controversy despite the near 40% collapse from its 2011 peak.   Rather than spill a lot of ink onto the page, I wanted to direct your attention to the following…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation