Posts filed under “Inflation”

Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.”

In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase “inflation ex-inflation” to show the absurdity of reporting inflation data without food and energy prices, which were rising fast then. Owner’s equivalent rent, hedonic adjustments, substitution all were rightly criticized as flaws in the consumer price index model.

The key difference between the truthers of 2010s and those of the 2000s is what each group has criticized and toward what purpose.

The 2000s truthers were critics of the inflation mathematical model used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (more on this later); the 2010s truthers are critics of President Barack Obama, and any economic gains under his watch therefore must be the result of inflation.

Today’s truthers include the site shadowstats.com, whose methodology was thoroughly debunked by John Aziz. Yet even conservative Ramesh Ponnuru, my colleague at Bloomberg View, has called those who believe that hyperinflation is running amok, “inflation cranks.”   Continues here

 

Category: Inflation, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

What the FOMC Was Thinking . . .

Here is what the FOMC was looking at while debating the end of QE/ZIRP:   Will Holding Down Rates Spark Inflation Without Helping the Long-Term Unemployed? click for larger graphic Source: WSJ

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up

Inflation Expectations Stay Steady as the CPI Edges Up William Bednar and Mehmet Pasaogullari After hovering in a narrow range between 1.0 percent and 1.6 percent for eight months straight, annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.0 percent in April. Part of the uptick is explained by food prices,…Read More

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Central Bank Transparency Anchors Inflation Expectations

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Category: Economy, Inflation, Think Tank

Why Has Core Inflation Slowed?

Source: Bloomberg Visual Data From Bloomberg Visual Data: A weakening in price growth over the past two years can largely be blamed on muted costs for health care, cars, clothing and financial services. Core PCE inflation running at 1.09 percent owes much of its small climb to housing-related prices. The rise in those costs, including…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Inflation

Real Price of Gold Since 1791

click for ginormous graphic Source: Visualizing Economics   Earlier this year, we discussed the Lessons Learned from the Fall of Gold. That surprisingly generated some controversy despite the near 40% collapse from its 2011 peak.   Rather than spill a lot of ink onto the page, I wanted to direct your attention to the following…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation

The Fed and Hyperinflation

“It is after a trend has been reversed that the full effect of the preceding excesses is felt.” -George Soros For the last 5+ years we have seen a massive attempt by global central banks to prop up asset prices. The Federal Reserve has spearheaded the effort, increasing their balance sheet from less than $1…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets