Posts filed under “Inflation”

U.S. Health Care vs. The World

 

click for ginormous graphic
US healthcare

 

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Category: Digital Media, Economy, Inflation

Commodity Prices and Inflation: The Perspective of Firms

Commodity Prices and Inflation: The Perspective of Firms Mike Bryan, Brent Meyer and Nicholas Parker July 16, 2013     We’ve been thinking a lot about commodity prices lately. In case you haven’t noticed, they’ve been falling. And with inflation already tracking well under the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) longer-term objective of 2 percent,…Read More

Category: Commodities, Inflation, Think Tank

Friday Funny: Higher Prices

This is brilliant: The Federal Reserve is awaiting That prices may start re-inflating, So they can foresee Unwinding QE, Whose tapering they’ve been debating. The Fed will not bother to taper Its purchase of Treasury paper ‘Til the jobless rate now And inflation allow An end to their stimulus caper. Bernanke must act with agility…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Humor, Inflation

Following the Fed Out of Bonds?

Click to enlarge Source: FT.com   Excellent explanatory chart from the FT.   Source: Bond Traders Take Cue to Exit Treasuries By Michael Mackenzie and Stephen Foley FT, June 20, 2013 4:52 pm http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6d98edbc-d8dd-11e2-84fa-00144feab7de.html

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

What is Behind the Inflation Numbers?

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Really!?! With Ben & Janet

Look Out Below, Fed Tapering Edition
click for updated futures
6.20.13 futes

 

Really!?!

Really traders!?! Did you really believe that the Fed was never going to stop buying bonds? Really?!?

Do you think that the Fed was going to have an infinite accommodation, and that rates were going to stay at zero forever? Is that what you expected from the Central bank. C’mon, Really!?

And what about the dreaded hyper-inflation you have been warning us about for so long? Inflation has been so low for so long that it had its name legally changed to Deflation. Really!

united-states-inflation-cpi
Source: Trading Economics

 

Where you out the day Bernanke said he was targeting Unemployment, which has fallen from nearly 11% to 7.6%? Did you forget about that? Really!?!

UNRATE_Max_630_378
Source: FRED

And this entire Risk On rally — did you really think it was going to last forever? Really? US Equity are up nearly 150% over the past 5 years, didn’t you think it had to eventually slow down? Did you actually believe Markets were a uni-directional bet? Really?!?

SPX 5 year

 

The Fed has a dual mandate — stable prices and maximum employment. Did you really think there was a third component of maximizing your risk free equity returns? Really!?

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This has been Really!?! With Ben & Janet.

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Category: Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Trading

1988: Why is inflation so low?

Here is the Chicago Fed Letter circa 1988. Makes for fascinating reading  

Category: Inflation, Think Tank

Dormant Inflation Seen Giving Fed Time to Wait

U.S. core consumer price index’s increase since the latest recession ended in June 2009 Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg   The amount of inflation since the end of the recession in June 2009 is the smallest for any multiyear recovery since the 1970s. The gauge of prices excluding food and energy rose 6.3% through April….Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services

Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich Liberty Street Economics, June 05, 2013   Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Which is a Better Inflation Hedge, Gold or Houses?

Source: Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day, Federal Housing Finance Agency     Here is something I never would have guessed at, via Dave Wilson of Bloomberg: If you want to be hedged against the risk of a pickup in inflation, you would be better off buying houses than gold. That’s according to Michael Hartnett, chief…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation, Real Estate