Posts filed under “Inflation”

Continuing Upside Risks to Inflation

Here’s the key inflation paragraph from yesterday’s Fed minutes

"Participants noted that, while the pass-through of higher energy and other commodity prices to prices of core goods and services had remained subdued, there were continuing upside risks to inflation from these sources. Whatever the size of such pass-through effects, however, it was thought that they would probably be temporary in nature and likely diminish as energy prices flattened out, as long as inflation expectations did not move higher. In that regard, participants were encouraged that, despite recent energy price increases, survey measures of inflation expectations had notched down and longer-term inflation compensation in financial markets was little changed. Although high profit margins could imply some existing pricing power, they might also provide a cushion to absorb some future cost increases. Indeed, anecdotal reports suggested that the ability of firms to pass through higher input costs generally remained limited. Nevertheless, the increased prices of energy and other commodities and the possibility of a further rise in resource utilization, which some members viewed as nearly full at present, represented continuing risks, potentially adding to inflation pressures."
(emphasis added)

By now, you should know my views on the subject . . .

>

Sources:
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
FRB, January 31, 2006
http://federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20060131.htm

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

House of Morgan(s)

Category: Economy, Inflation

Further Yield Curve Inversion “a Given”

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

Secular Changes in Interest Rates

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets

New Column: The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Sourcing the Greenspan Chatter

This is the article that the Greenspan quote came from that popped the market today; I don’t know how accurate it is (holographic image?) but

Gold price riding high on fear of terrorism, says Greenspan
Leo Lewis, Tokyo
February 09, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/98gdp

Excerpt:

"ALAN Greenspan, who stepped
down last week as chairman of the US Federal Reserve after 18 1/2 years, has
blamed the threat of terrorism for the high gold price, in his first private
sector speech since being let off the leash of officialdom.

According to
members of his audience of international investors – watching a holographic
image in Tokyo as he spoke in New York – Greenspan said the high cost of gold
did not reflect inflation or the strength of commodities, but rather a fear
among investors of a major geopolitical conflict. There were people who believed
that a nuclear weapon could be detonated within five years, the former American
central bank supremo said.

The low probability of such an event occurring would not necessarily avert a
spike in the gold price, he added.

Greenspan went on to discuss a range of topics, including the problems
created by a lack of investment in refining capacity by the oil industry. He
said this failure by the oil majors meant that the era of cheap energy was
almost surely over.

The former Fed chairman is also said to have indulged in a moment of
self-criticism over the central bank’s failure to prevent the market bubble in
the late 1990s.

That may explain Gold’s $20 whackage yesterday, but what about all the rest of the metals and commodities?

Also, if you missed this, you MUST read it:

GREENSPAN SENDS MIXED SIGNALS IN FIRST DAY AT HOME
Former Fed Chief’s Inscrutable Statements Baffle Wife
http://www.borowitzreport.com/archive_rpt.asp?rec=1307&srch=

Its a hoot!

and on the chance the article disappears, I’ll archive it after the jump . . .

Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing

The Street Get Inflation Exactly Backwards

Category: Commodities, Employment, Inflation

Chart of the Week: AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS

Category: Employment, Inflation

Jobs & Wage Data: the “Nuanced Economy”

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Inflation, Psychology

Once Fed Hikes Stop, Markets Fall

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets