Posts filed under “Inflation”
I really like the way this chart, by Joseph Ellis, presents this information:
Long-term interest-rate changes and the stock market
click for larger graph
Source: Ahead of the Curve
Because of the inverse relationship between interest rates and stocks’ price-earnings ratios, rising interest rates from 1960 to 1982 contributed to a compound annual appreciation of only 2.9% in the S&P 500 Index.
Conversely, falling interest rates from 1982 to 2003 were a major long-term stimulus to the stock market, helping produce compound annual growth in the S&P 500 of 10.5%. Note that bear markets from 1960 to 1982 were more frequent and longer, whereas from 1982 to 2003 they were less frequent and shorter in duration.
This is the article that the Greenspan quote came from that popped the market today; I don’t know how accurate it is (holographic image?) but
Gold price riding high on fear of terrorism, says Greenspan
Leo Lewis, Tokyo
February 09, 2006
"ALAN Greenspan, who stepped
down last week as chairman of the US Federal Reserve after 18 1/2 years, has
blamed the threat of terrorism for the high gold price, in his first private
sector speech since being let off the leash of officialdom.
members of his audience of international investors – watching a holographic
image in Tokyo as he spoke in New York – Greenspan said the high cost of gold
did not reflect inflation or the strength of commodities, but rather a fear
among investors of a major geopolitical conflict. There were people who believed
that a nuclear weapon could be detonated within five years, the former American
central bank supremo said.
The low probability of such an event occurring would not necessarily avert a
spike in the gold price, he added.
Greenspan went on to discuss a range of topics, including the problems
created by a lack of investment in refining capacity by the oil industry. He
said this failure by the oil majors meant that the era of cheap energy was
almost surely over.
The former Fed chairman is also said to have indulged in a moment of
self-criticism over the central bank’s failure to prevent the market bubble in
the late 1990s.
That may explain Gold’s $20 whackage yesterday, but what about all the rest of the metals and commodities?
Also, if you missed this, you MUST read it:
GREENSPAN SENDS MIXED SIGNALS IN FIRST DAY AT HOME
Former Fed Chief’s Inscrutable Statements Baffle Wife
Its a hoot!
and on the chance the article disappears, I’ll archive it after the jump . . .