Posts filed under “Inflation”

Flat Yield Curve!

Mark Thoma asks: When should we worry about the yield curve?



Chart courtesy of Angry Bear

Note that each inversion (spread < 0) preceded a recession.

Here’s how falt we are:

FED Funds Rate: 4.5% (overnight)
6 Month CD 4.37%
Five Year Note: 4.54%
Ten Year Note: 4.54%
30 Year Bond: 4.53%

Let me remind you that last year, the S&P500 gained about 4% — about what you would get from a CD, but with quite a bit more risk.

That factoid is another element why if the market starts to fade, more than a few equity holders will see it as an unpleasant repeat of 2005.

I can imagine that during any "unpleasantness," the so-called weak hands will dominate not only  the selling, but the lack of buying interest, too.

Category: Inflation

Fed: Stagnant Net Worth for Typical US Family

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology

Health Spending Likely to Outpace Economy’s Growth

Category: Consumer Spending, Inflation

Is the Fed Done? Depends on What Page You’re Reading

Category: Federal Reserve, Financial Press, Inflation

Category: Commodities, Consumer Spending, Inflation

Continuing Upside Risks to Inflation

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

House of Morgan(s)

Category: Economy, Inflation

Further Yield Curve Inversion “a Given”

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

Secular Changes in Interest Rates

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets

New Column: The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Psychology