Posts filed under “Investing”

The U.S. Economy Upshifts

 

“Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales was misleading at best.” — New York Times

 

No, this isn’t going to be a victory lap about the National Retail Federation and its always-wrong forecasts about holiday retail sales (that annual chest-pounding comes in January). Rather, this is about the recent U.S. economic acceleration and what it might mean for the stock market, the Federal Reserve and bonds.

The combination of falling oil prices, increasing job availability and rising wages bodes well for retail sales. Perhaps more significantly, the economy is now showing unmistakable signs of acceleration. Following several years of subpar job creation, jobs are now being added at a robust pace. As we noted last week, the U.S. is adding an average of 241,000 jobs a month. That’s almost a 25 percent increase from 2013’s monthly average of 194,000.

Some of you will no doubt be compelled to note that any economic recovery is artificial, the result of the Fed’s bond-buying program of quantitative easing and its zero interest-rate policy. To which I say, you are in part right. But I am equally compelled to point out that many of these are the same folks who have been loudly complaining that QE and ZIRP weren’t working. Well, which is it? Is QE impotent or does it generate growth, albeit it artificial? Critics of the Fed can’t have it both ways.

Regardless, investors may want to consider the ramifications of accelerating  economic growth:

No. 1. Economic activity is uncorrelated with the stock market.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing

Folklore of Finance

I really enjoyed this report by State Street, which discusses how often Folklore dominates financial decision-making. Well worth the free download:     click for full PDF of research report Source: State Street Source: State Street

Category: ETFs, Investing, Psychology

Better Than All Weather Portfolio . . .

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we take yet another at Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio. The print version had the headline Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out while online, it was Better Than All Weather Portfolio. Rather than merely criticize Robbin’s 55% bond, 15% commodity portfolio, I…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Really, really bad calls

What Worries Investors?

Great graphic from Bloomberg

 

click for complete graphic
inflation deflation

 

Read More

Category: Digital Media, Investing, Sentiment

Batnick: Why it’s important to diversify globally

Category: Asset Allocation, Investing, Video

Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what?

Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post November 23, 2014       Last week, we learned that Giancarlo Stanton signed an enormous contract: a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Before the 25-year-old slugger starts to celebrate, there are quite a few things he needs…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing, Wages & Income

The Risk That Will Bite You Next Is NOT The One That Bit You Last

Cassandra Does Tokyo is an Investment Banker now relocated to Japan ~~~ The Risk That Will Bite You Next Is NOT The One That Bit You Last Traumatic and painful events burnish their effect upon our brains. This happens profoundly in childhood, as well as in relationships, and most definitely as readers will know,  in…Read More

Category: Investing, Philosophy

How to Win the Loser’s Game (Full Version)

Bored with the family? Here’s how to kill an hour and a half:
 

How to Win the Loser’s Game: Full Version

via Sensible Investing

 

Category: Investing, Video

Last Few Slots Left: NYC Open House (December 8-12)

We just had a trip to Washington D.C. Coming up in the new year will be visits to Seattle, Austin, and San Francisco, But a number of you suggested New York City as our next place for a meet and greet, and so that is what we decided to do. We have scheduled the week…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Investing

A $325 Million Deal Still Needs a Plan

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at Giancarlo Stanton’s enormous a 13-year, $325 million contract with the Miami Marlins. The print version had the full headline A $325 million deal still needs a plan, while the online version was Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what?….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing