Posts filed under “Investing”

Market Sell Off May Not Have Run Its Course Yet

The change in tone in the equity markets is unmistakable: There is a palpable tension that leads some money managers to shoot first and ask questions later. The net result of that anxiety can be seen in the flood of new money into U.S Treasuries, which ever so briefly drove the yield on the 10 year to less than 2 percent yesterday.

Certainly, fund managers can hide in fixed income, but only for so long.

What caused this shift?

The macro folks call out their favorites: Fed taper! European weakness! Pricey stocks! ISIS! Soft retail sales! Plummeting oil! Slowing China! Even the dreaded Ebola Virus! gets the blame in some quarters.

These are all well-known. There isn’t one single surprise on that list. In fact, many of these macro issues have been on the radar for more than a year. Why now?

The change in tone isn’t the result of any headline or news story. Rather, it more likely reflects the shift in balance between supply and demand for equities. I hope my repeating this doesn’t seem boorish, but what is going on beneath the headlines is far more important than the headlines themselves.

So what is happening beneath the surface?

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Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Trading

Are Falling Oil Prices Driven by Rising Supply or Falling Demand? (Yes)

It’s been impossible to miss the headlines screaming about oil: Prices Plunge! Multiyear lows! Supply glut! Dollar rally! My concern is less about a supply glut and more about falling demand. Despite a dearth of signals that a recession may be on its way, falling oil prices can be a sign that consumers are getting…Read More

Category: Energy, Investing

Correction or New Bear Market ?

Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it. At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one direction market…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Quantitative, Trading

Successful Investors *Adapt (*or go Extinct)

Dave Nadig of ETF.com has some very kind things to say about our latest project: “Right now, on our home page, we have evidence of what I think is the most important trend we’re seeing in financial services. It’s not a product launch, or a clever structure or a brilliant way to make money now….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

What If You Were the World’s Greatest Stock Picker® ?

Even if you could pick huge winners, could you hold them? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 5, 2014       Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker®. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology

Predict This!

Over the years, I have discussed how little I care for predictions (see “The Folly of Forecasts“). We have chatted about how poor Wall Street is at making forecasts, wondered why they keep at it and revealed the secret to making better predictions. But the bottom line is that you humans are terrible at forecasting…Read More

Category: Investing, Quantitative, Really, really bad calls

How Is Your Brain Interfering With Your Investing?

I am the guest speaker tonight at AAII’s NYC meeting in midtown. The subject: Why your brain is the source of nearly all of your investing errors, and what you can do about it. (Details here).   Click for more details   Should be fun!

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Psychology

Is the Bull Market Turning Bear?

Yesterday’s sell off has the bulls worried. Major U.S. indexes fell about 1.5 percent. Ten of the past 12 trading sessions saw swings of 100 points or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The list of worries ranges from the strengthening dollar’s harm to U.S. earnings, the end of quantitative easing, Europe’s weakening economy…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading

Business Cycle Chart

I love this chart from Fidelity:   How to Invest Using the Business Cycle Source: Fidelity

Category: Cycles, Investing

RWM is Coming to Wash, D.C. Next Week

A quick reminder that later this month, we have only a few slots left to meet with me and our the head of Financial Planning group when we will be visit with clients and prospective clients in the Washington, D.C. area on October 15h and 16th.

For those of you who are familiar with our investing philosophy, it is an opportunity to have a more in depth, personal conversation about your personal financial circumstances. For those of you who want to get the news straight from the horse’s mouth, come hear what I have to say on markets, the economy, and investing. (For a flavor of the conversation, check out the audio of our last quarterly conference call is below).

If you are interested in discussing about your personal financial circumstances, meeting with us, or simply hearing our views, give us a call or email.

Send email to Info -at- RitholtzWealth -dot- com, with the subject “DC Trip.”

Or call 212-455-9122 and ask for Erika.

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Our last quarterly conference call is after the jump.

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Category: Asset Allocation, Investing