Posts filed under “Investing”
“Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales was misleading at best.” — New York Times
No, this isn’t going to be a victory lap about the National Retail Federation and its always-wrong forecasts about holiday retail sales (that annual chest-pounding comes in January). Rather, this is about the recent U.S. economic acceleration and what it might mean for the stock market, the Federal Reserve and bonds.
The combination of falling oil prices, increasing job availability and rising wages bodes well for retail sales. Perhaps more significantly, the economy is now showing unmistakable signs of acceleration. Following several years of subpar job creation, jobs are now being added at a robust pace. As we noted last week, the U.S. is adding an average of 241,000 jobs a month. That’s almost a 25 percent increase from 2013’s monthly average of 194,000.
Some of you will no doubt be compelled to note that any economic recovery is artificial, the result of the Fed’s bond-buying program of quantitative easing and its zero interest-rate policy. To which I say, you are in part right. But I am equally compelled to point out that many of these are the same folks who have been loudly complaining that QE and ZIRP weren’t working. Well, which is it? Is QE impotent or does it generate growth, albeit it artificial? Critics of the Fed can’t have it both ways.
Regardless, investors may want to consider the ramifications of accelerating economic growth:
No. 1. Economic activity is uncorrelated with the stock market.
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we take yet another at Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio. The print version had the headline Why the all-weather portfolio is a wash-out while online, it was Better Than All Weather Portfolio. Rather than merely criticize Robbin’s 55% bond, 15% commodity portfolio, I…Read More
Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post November 23, 2014 Last week, we learned that Giancarlo Stanton signed an enormous contract: a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Before the 25-year-old slugger starts to celebrate, there are quite a few things he needs…Read More
Cassandra Does Tokyo is an Investment Banker now relocated to Japan ~~~ The Risk That Will Bite You Next Is NOT The One That Bit You Last Traumatic and painful events burnish their effect upon our brains. This happens profoundly in childhood, as well as in relationships, and most definitely as readers will know, in…Read More
We just had a trip to Washington D.C. Coming up in the new year will be visits to Seattle, Austin, and San Francisco, But a number of you suggested New York City as our next place for a meet and greet, and so that is what we decided to do. We have scheduled the week…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at Giancarlo Stanton’s enormous a 13-year, $325 million contract with the Miami Marlins. The print version had the full headline A $325 million deal still needs a plan, while the online version was Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what?….Read More