Posts filed under “Investing”

Predictions and Accountability

I’m a big believer in accountability — both on Wall Street and in D.C. That’s why I admit my (all too frequent) errors in public, why when I discover I was wrong about something on this blog I don’t delete anything, but strike it out (strike it out) and put the correction next to it. 

Its why I expect to be wrong, and plan for contingencies.   

Why am I bringing this up today? Yesterday (even through my head cold) I was infuriated by a nameless putz on TV, pontificating on the economic positives on Katrina.

This was infuriating because this idiot has for the past two years been pretty much wrong across the boards on EVERYTHING. His track record is abysmal:  Oil wasn’t going to go much over $40, if it did it won’t impact the consumer much, nor would Katrina impact the economy much, and it will take much less time to rebuild, and besides, no one could have seen this coming.

Why any station has him on is beyond my comprehension — I never met him nor has he cost me any money personally. But he is less than worthless; he is an actual distributor of misinformation.

Over the next few days and weeks, you will hear from many pundits — not just about Katrina and NOLA, but about the consumer, the market, oil, and the economy. I implore you before allowing any of the chattering classes (present company included) to influence you to familiarize yourself with their track record — prior to allowing their babble to color your perspective.

Here’s one example of how easily foreseen this was:

Historical Media Coverage (Pre-Katrina)

Washing Away (eerily prescient series from THE TIMES-PICAYUNE)

Gone with the Water (Nat’l Georgraphic, October 2004)

NEW ORLEANS IS SINKING (September 11, 2001)

That’s all I have to say on this topic . . .

< RANT MODE OFF>

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Investing

When to Sell Mutual Funds

Category: Investing

Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004)

There is a terrific Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004) for sale at the Minyanville.com gallery. Its along the same concept of a chart we did back in 2003 — only this one includes P/E ratios, which is a very instructive addition to the graph: click for an enormous chart: “Officially licensed and designed by Minyanville’s own…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets

Time to Bet Against the U.S. Consumer?

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Retail

Earnings or Multiple Expansion?

Category: Earnings, Investing, Markets

Apprenticed Investor: The Stock Pre-Nup

Category: Investing, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Has Oil Reached the Tipping Point?

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Retail

Sunday Nite Linkfest

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Psychology, Weblogs

10 rules to Win the “Loser’s Game”

Category: Books, Investing, Psychology, Rules

We Are Greedy and Stupid Creatures

Category: Investing, Psychology