Posts filed under “Investing”

Market Cycles: 100 Year DJIA

Yet another look (see prior takes here and here) at the concept of market cycles. The past century  shows alternating Bullish and Bearish phases, secular periods each lasting for an extended time (between 10 to 20 years).

Dow Jones Industrials, 1903 – 2004


Note that markets are up slightly for 2005 since this chart was completed.

A few minor comments about this chart:  To be fully accurate, the post 1929 period — starting from 1934 or so — was mostly positive, if for no other reason than the crash brought the market to such a low level by 1932. If one bought and held then — perhaps the equivalent of Summer 2002 — one did quite well. Of course, almost nobody did.

And I would start the post-war period in either 1944 or 1946, making the post WWII rally more like 20 years than 11.

But these are mere quibbles — the key point is that markets go through long secular cycles. Following the 18 year Bull market from 1982-2000, it would be unprecendented to see a mere 2 year Bear Market followed by a multi year, decade long Bull Market.

Instead, History implies a rangebound period of cyclical rallies and selloffs, lasting for quite a long time.


Investing —More of a Challenge
Rydex Funds

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets

Katrina Lowers Year End Expectations

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Predictions and Accountability

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Investing

When to Sell Mutual Funds

Category: Investing

Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004)

There is a terrific Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004) for sale at the gallery. Its along the same concept of a chart we did back in 2003 — only this one includes P/E ratios, which is a very instructive addition to the graph: click for an enormous chart: “Officially licensed and designed by Minyanville’s own…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets

Time to Bet Against the U.S. Consumer?

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Retail

Earnings or Multiple Expansion?

Category: Earnings, Investing, Markets

Apprenticed Investor: The Stock Pre-Nup

Category: Investing, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Has Oil Reached the Tipping Point?

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Retail

Sunday Nite Linkfest

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Psychology, Weblogs