Posts filed under “Investing”

Category: Asset Allocation, Investing, Psychology, Think Tank

Why Is It So Hard to Call a Market Top?

Each morning, I go through a similar routine: I wake up (no alarm clock), go to the kitchen to get a cup of coffee (this is my machine of choice lately), launch a script that opens 40 or so Firefox tabs. As part of my morning research, I quickly scan this series of websites to…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment, Short Selling, Technical Analysis, Trading

A Bear Market for Mom & Pop Investors

Last year, we noted that there was a “Bubble in Bubble Calling.” News media bubble chatter was the rage, whether it was tech initial public offerings or stocks or bonds — all caused by “a global central bank QE bubble.” Here we are two quarters later, with the central bank reducing quantitative easing by scaling…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Sentiment

World’s Cheapest Stock Markets

click for ginormous version Source: The Telegraph   Nice graphic from The Telegraph, showing relative valuations around the world, using P/E ratios, CAPE, and Price to Book. To be named “cheap”, markets had to be trading below their own historic valuation across all three measures. As the map to the left shows, only a handful…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Valuation

Congratulations, You Were Drafted. Prepare To Go Broke.

Professional athletes need to learn to keep their finances in good shape Barry Ritholtz, Washington Post, May 30, 2014     Michael Sam made sports history when the St. Louis Rams made him the first openly gay player to be drafted into the National Football League. If he is smart, he can join another elite…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Sports

How Much Do S&P500 P/E Ratios Vary Historically?

Source: Bespoke Investment Group   How expensive are stocks? Its a question that seems to beget many different answers. Too often, the response reflects the responder’s investment posture. If they are long equities, they typically respond by saying “Not very.” If they are short, or in cash or in other risk assets, the answer is…Read More

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets, Valuation

How to Make Better Predictions

    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  -Yogi Berra, or Neil Bohr   Last week, I was in San Francisco speaking to 700 financial planners from northern California. The areas that seemed to generate the most feedback and questions were on expert commentary and on risk. People love forecasts. They shouldn’t…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Paint By Numbers: RoboAdvisors

From I ❤ Wall Street:   They say art is in the eye of the beholder so I want to get your take on something I painted in my studio today. I think it’s pretty good, way better than the macaroni art I made last week. The subjects of this picture are three firms using…Read More

Category: Investing, Think Tank, Web/Tech

Congratulations, you were drafted! Prepare to go broke.

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at how often pro athletes manage to go financially bust. The print version had the headline Congratulations, you were drafted! Prepare to go broke!, while the online version is merely Professional athletes need to learn to keep their finances in good…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Foreclosures, Investing, Really, really bad calls

NorCal FPA: This Is Your Brain On Stocks

This is the presentation I gave this week out in San Francisco:

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Psychology, Think Tank