Posts filed under “Investing”
Until, not so long ago, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker was one of the most bearish analysts on the street. He had consistently violated one of the first rules of the market: Never mix politics with investing.
Following last year’s 30% S&P 500 rally, he has had a change of heart. He now has a 3000 upside target for the S&P 500.
I don’t really follow Parker closely — he simply has been too wrong for too long for me to put much weight on his analysis. But I give him kudos for reversing himself — many other analysts and investors have been unable to go 180 degrees from their prior investment postures and statements (John Hussman, Gold bugs, etc.).
Regular readers know I have a negative view on the dark art of forecasting.
BI has a bulleted summary of Parker’s key points:
• The world economy is not in sync. Major regional economies are at different points along the growth cycle. In general, DM is leading while EM is lagging.
• Volatility in the U.S. continues to trend lower, which can extend the life of expansions.
• Deleveraging in the U.S. is ongoing, albeit largely complete, and balance sheet priorities have shifted.
• Interest payments on debt burdens are ultra-low, and household debt dynamics suggest there exists a sizable cushion protecting consumers in a rising interest rate environment.
• Capital spending and inventories do not look stretched.
• Corporate management hubris and other corporate metrics of overheating remain muted.
• Several broad economic indicators in the U.S. have only just reached “normal” expansionary levels and are far from looking unsustainable.
If you were looking for a capitulation from a major bear, this might be it . . .
Time, not timing, is key to investing success Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 24, 2014 Over the past month, we looked at how you would have fared if you were an uncanny stock picker who consistently beat the market by 30 percent or so (What if You Were the World’s Greatest Trader® ?…Read More
This week’s Masters in Business Radio show at 10:00 am and 6:00 pm on Bloomberg Radio 1130AM and Siriux XM 119 (it also repeats all weekend). Our guest this week is James O’Shaugnessy of O’Shaugnessy Asset Management, author of What Works On Wall Street. You can listen to live here or stream it below or…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. As a follow up to our previous discussion of the World’s Greatest Trader®, this morning, we look at the Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer®. As we did last time out, we assumed magical powers for our theoretical trader, giving him the ability to bottom…Read More
Source: Novel Investor Have a look a the chart above (click on the chart for a larger interactive version). This chart ranks the past 15 years of returns for eight major asset classes (large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, developed-market stocks, emerging-market stocks, real estate investment trusts, high-grade bonds, high-yield bonds and cash). We can divide…Read More
Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More