Posts filed under “Investing”
The past few weeks, I have been arguing against the notion that we are in a bubble.
Let’s look at the other side of the argument: What is the (rational) bear case? We know stocks are no longer cheap, and this bull — already up 160%+ — is on the high end of the range.
What are the legitimate bear arguments?
This is an open thread — make your best case!
“The term bubble should indicate a price that no reasonable future outcome can justify.” -Clifford Asness Fridays are the day I like to wax philosophical about all things market related, with an emphasis on the failings of your wetware. This week is no different. The motivation for this week’s musings comes from…Read More
Source: 361 Capital This chart comes to us via Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital. I find it provides great context for the current markets, especially given the amount of bubble chatter we hear these days. How common are double-digit equity gains? How often do we see markets up 20 percent or more in a…Read More
I spent the early part of this week presenting at several conferences in Belgium, in and around Brussels. I was the not-so-randomly selected person to give the American take on the state of the global economy and capital markets. Or, at least, an American take. I never want to misrepresent my own biased and conflicted…Read More
The S&P 500 hit 1709 a few weeks back and has since been dropping precipitously, we are now down roughly 3.7% from that level in a short period of time. Heading into today, we’ve been negative 4 days straight and have seen losses during 9 of the last 11 days on both the S&P…Read More
These bullet points were from a (much longer) Merrill Lynch research piece last week. “With most of our market indicators flashing green, we address the bear cases below to either debunk them or provide evidence that the risks are priced into stocks.” 1. “The 5-year bull market is long in the tooth” 2. “Everybody’s bullish…Read More
Use the news: How to get the most out of financial media Barry Ritholtz Washington Post November 17 2013 Last time out, our topic was the signal-to-noise ratio when applied to investing. We looked at how to reduce the noise you consume in your daily information diet. The goal was to help you…Read More
Source: Capital Spectator The most perplexing thing I read this week was an odd column by Paul Merriman at MarketWatch, “Why Rebalancing Could Be a Huge Mistake.” He makes the counterintuitive claim that portfolio rebalancing doesn’t really work: “Conventional wisdom holds that regular rebalancing is a sound practice to control investing risk. But…Read More