Posts filed under “Investing”
I love this debate between the idea of Tobin’s Q-Ratio as th be all for valuation analysis. It is embodied between Smithers & Co. quoted in this scary BBRG article and Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche.
Here is PragCap:
“Better yet, look at the number of times this ratio has been cited during the most recent bull market as a reason to exit stocks:
- In November of 2009 Smithers said equities were 40% overvalued (see here also).
- In December 2010 Smithers said equities were 70% overvalued.
- In March of 2012 Smithers said equities were 50% overvalued.
- And now we hear the citation about an 80% overvaluation.
At least he is consistent!
Let me remind readers of the folly of Single Variable Analysis . . .
Single vs. Multiple Variable Analysis in Market Forecasts (TBP, May 4th, 2005)
When Correlations Lie (Bloomberg View June 27, 2014)
The data on this is fascinating:
Many people plan on supplementing their retirement funds by working past 65, but this plan may not be as sound as it seems. Bloomberg’s Suzanne Woolley breaks down the expectations and often unfortunate truths of working through retirement.
Source: Bloomberg May 18, 2015 7:32 AM EDT
“We are not done on the cost side . . . We think we need to keep raising the bar on that.” So says Bill McNabb, CEO and Chairman of the Vanguard Group. The firm, managing over $3.1 trillion dollars in client monies, has long been known for its obsessive focus on keeping costs low….Read More
Tren Griffin runs 25IQ, a blog about business models, investing, technology, and other aspects of life that he find interesting. He works for Microsoft; Previously he was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. ~~~ A Dozen Things I have Learned from Barry Ritholtz about Investing As part of my “A Dozen Things…Read More
“Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly.” ~ Chinese Proverb In the game of investing, the players are often the ones who are unknowingly being played… The phrase, caught up in the game, can be attributed to “blind ambition” and the emotional trappings that accompany the desire to win….Read More
I love this collection of Paul Tudor Jones insights and rules by way of Ivanhoff Capital: 13 Insights From Paul Tudor Jones 1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am…Read More
Fed-Driven U.S. Stock Advance Leaves Grantham Waiting for Bubble by David Wilson (Bloomberg) — Adjusting U.S. stock-market indicators for Federal Reserve policy since the 1980s shows a bubble has yet to come, according to Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.’s chief investment strategist. The attached chart highlights one gauge, Yale University Professor Robert…Read More
The remarkable life and lessons of Ronald Read, the $8 million janitor Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, April 26 2015 You may have read about the remarkable life and times of Ronald Read. He was the gas station attendant and lifelong resident of Windham County, Vt., who had quietly accumulated a portfolio worth…Read More