Posts filed under “Investing”

Don’t Make the Trading Gods Laugh

Today’s discussion is aimed at the individual investor, though certainly the professionals might take something from our philosophical musings this morning.

The bull market that dates to March 2009 is now entering one of its more interesting — and perhaps dangerous — phases. Not hazardous, mind you, from a market perspective, but from a behavioral one. Mr. Market will do what he is going to do, and that is unknown and unpredictable.

However, what isn’t unknown and is very predictable is that YOU are going to do something very foolish and self-destructive. The only variable is whether you are going to do this sooner rather than later.

A quick explanation.

The noise box in your den (and on the wall of your trading room) has been tallying a catalog of potential crises and hazards. That parade of terribles seems to be getting longer each day. Although none of them are new, it is as if all of them have suddenly risen in unison, a chorus of noise, funk and angst. Markets are expensive, the Federal Reserve’s stimulus of quantitative easing and zero interest rates is ending, the euro is collapsing, deflation is a threat, rates are rising, residential real estate is a mess, biotech is a bubble, oil prices are plunging, Grexit will arrive any day. Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together…mass hysteria! 

Continues here

 

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Dilbert: Beating the Average

Source: Dilbert

Category: Bad Math, Cognitive Foibles, Humor, Investing

I wanted to spend a bit of time on the Labor Department’s proposal to place a fiduciary obligation on those who manage or provide investment advice on retirement plans. These include individual retirement accounts and 401(k)s (including 403(b)s). The new rules require the broker or adviser to “operate in the best interest of the client.” I don’t…Read More

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Mutual Funds, Really, really bad calls

Nasdaq 5000 and Beyond?

Barron’s looks at Nasdaq’s momentum and the zombie apps no one talks about.

 

 


2/20/2015 4:13PM

Category: Investing, Technology, Valuation, Video

10 Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street

To outsiders, Wall Street is a manic, dangerous and ridiculous republic unto itself – a sort of bizarro world where nothing adds up and common sense is virtually inapplicable. Consider the following insane things that we believe on Wall Street, that make no sense whatsoever in the real world: 1. Falling gas and home heating…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Investing, Philosophy, Really, really bad calls

No, EVERYTHING Is NOT A Forecast

As one of those folks who has spent a lot of time bashing economic and stock-market forecasters (see this, this, and this), I have no choice but to take issue with an argument made by former hedge-fund manager Jesse Felder, who asserts “that everything is a forecast.” To quote Felder: Can we please stop bashing forecasters already? There is a…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Bad Math, Investing, Mathematics

The Amazing Disconnect Between Hedge Fund Performance & AUM

Earlier this week, Greg Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal pointed out one of the great mysteries of today’s investment landscape: Despite underperforming by a substantial margin, hedge funds keep attracting more investors and assets under management. It is almost as if (to borrow the headline on Zuckerman’s article), “Hedge Funds Keep Winning Despite Losing.”…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Bad Math, Hedge Funds, Investing, Psychology

The Future of New Business is Disrupting Old Business

The future of new business is disrupting old businessBarry RitholtzWashington Post, February 1 2015        There are many lessons to be learned from Uber, the taxi- ­ and car-hailing start-up that came out of nowhere and is valued at $41 billion. Less than three years ago, Uber had zero drivers. Now it has more than…Read More

Category: Investing, Technology, Venture Capital

A. Gary Shilling’s INSIGHT 2015 Investment Themes

INSIGHT 2015 Investment Themes A. Gary Shilling January 28, 2015     Our 2015 investment themes are quite similar to our 2014 list that worked well for us. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Treasury “bond rally of a lifetime” still seems intact. The “risk on” investment climate for U.S. equities persists, but…Read More

Category: Currency, Investing

How Passive Funds Changed Investing

Fantastic explanatory from the FT on the history of passive investing:   click for ginormous infographic Source: FT

Category: Digital Media, Index/ETFs, Investing