Posts filed under “Investing”

A Not So Beautiful Deleveraging…

Regular readers of mine know I spend lots of time debunking bias and cognitive errors. With the markets up as much as they have been, it has been easier to find examples of that error in the bearish camp than the bullish one (See this as an example of cognitive bias in action).

The bulls are just as likely to engage in selective perception and confirmation bias as their ursine counterparts. In the spirit of fair play and equal criticism, I should point out that the rallying market has provided them cover, allowing them to look more correct — and therefore less biased — than the bears. However, we much prefer to look at investing as a process rather than an activity based on outcomes. Let’s hope that helps us avoid getting fooled by dumb luck.

Which brings me to today’s charts. The first one has been getting touted by the bulls as a sign that all is well, the consumer is back, and there is lots more upside in equity markets. A closer look reveals that you can’t conclude any of that.  Continues here

Category: Data Analysis, Investing

Liesman to Santelli: “You Are a Money Loser!”

As a reminder, this is why you should leave your TV off all day . . .   Be sure to watch until the very end . . .   Is Yellen risking inflation? Source: CNBC, Mon, 14 Jul ’14 | 12:01 PM ET

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Television, UnGuru

Context Required: Mom & Pop vs Professional Investors

This morning, I want to direct your attention to a Bloomberg News article titled “Individuals Pile Into Stocks as Pros Say Bull Is Spent..” It is a worthwhile read, but a bit of context is required. The article notes that Main Street and Wall Street are allocating money in diametrically opposed ways: “Individual investors are…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Dumbest Investing Ideas of 2014

The Worst Investing Ideas I’ve Heard This Year (so far) Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, July 5, 2014     As the second quarter comes to an end, my top 10 list of dumb investment ideas is filling up. All of these would be fairly foolish in any year. (Feel free to explain to me why…Read More

Category: Investing, IPOs, Mutual Funds, UnGuru

What to Do in a Market Correction

Things to try in a market correction: • Respond emotionally, giving in to your lizard brain. It does a good job of keeping you alive, so you might as well hand over management of your portfolio to it. • Rely on your gut instinct to lead you out of trouble. After all, your instincts helped…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Mebane Faber’s Talk at Google on Global Value


Source: Mebane Faber Research

Category: Investing, Valuation, Video

How Not to Beat the Market

Hat tip Josh Brown   Today’s chart comes to us from Patrick O’Shaughnessy, author of the forthcoming book, “Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune.” O’Shaughnessy makes the observation that investing is “almost free” and investor behavior tends to matter more than their actual investments. As an example, he cites this chart.  Continues…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing

1980s Parallel to Today

On today’s “Chart Attack,” Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz looks at a chart that suggests the S&P 500 Index could be headed for a major crash. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”

What the 1982-87 Parallel to Today Could Mean

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JPMorgan’s James Liu, Global Financial Private Capital’s Mike Sorrentino and Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz discuss the outlook for U.S. stocks and Federal Reserve monetary policy on “Street Smart.

Are Stocks at the Beginning of a Serious Bull Run?

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Alcoa reported second-quarter earnings and sales that beat analysts’ expectations after an increase in the price of aluminum including regional delivery premiums. JPMorgan’s James Liu and Bloomberg’s Trish Regan, Julie Hyman, Matt Miller and Barry Ritholtz take a look at the numbers on “Street Smart

Alcoa Earnings Beat After Jump in Aluminum Premiums

Source: Bloomberg, July 8 2014

Category: Investing, Media, Video

Coming July 12: Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio

Over the past few weeks, I have been dropping hints about a new project I am working on with the folks at Bloomberg. Now that we have an official launch date, I can reveal the details to you. I have over the years, lamented about the state of media (see e.g., this, this and this). …Read More

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Media

I Love the 80′s: 1982 Low vs 2009 Low

click for ginormnous chart Source: The Chart Store   “I Love the ’80s” was a BBC television miniseries that examined the world through the lens of 1980s pop culture. (VH1’s riff on the show can be found here). I bring up the ’80s because of a wonderful chart from Ron Griess who runs The Chart…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets