Posts filed under “Investing”

Rolling Returns of Stocks & Gold

click for ginormous chart
StockGoldRealRollingReturns_2013

 

The chart above shows the rolling returns for stocks and gold.

Catherine Mulbrandon of Visualizing Economics writes:

For the period 1928-2013, the average annual compound real return of stocks = 6.3% and gold = 2.0%. However, the price of gold was controlled by the government until the mid-70s when the US finally abandoned the gold standard. For the period 1976-2013, the average returns were stocks = 7.2% and gold = 2.0%.

 

Continues here

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Investing

Preview: What Does “This Time Is Different” Really Mean?

This is a preview of an upcoming column.     “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’ “  -Sir John Templeton What do these words actually mean to investors today? As of late, more than a few pundits have been misinterpreting their meaning. With a wave of a hand, they…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Valuation

Why Does the Newsletter Business Exist?

Over the past few decades, I have watched the financial industry change. Some parts have evolved quite slowly, while others shift rapidly. But I am always amazed at how some business models manage to hang on despite overwhelming proof of their lack of purpose or value added. Some parts of the investment world exist simply…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

The Retirement Delusion

A recent Gallup poll asked working Americans what they expected in retirement. “Half of Americans think they will have enough money to live comfortably after they retire.” This is the first time since before the financial crisis that a majority of Americans have felt this way. The poll is very revealing about both investing psychology…Read More

Category: 401(k), Investing, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Pay close attention to what’s motivating market commentary

Pay close attention to what’s motivating market commentary Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, May 4, 2014     Have you ever heard a talking head or commentator say something and immediately wonder, “Why did he say that?” I don’t mean the Donald Sterling kind of stupidity, but rather, specific comments on the economy or the markets…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Financial Press, Investing

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the motivations of various market commentators. The study of investor bias and psychology has long fascinated me. This column revisits the subject of different roles investors must play in order to confront these problems. I tangentially mentioned this in…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Financial Press, Investing, Psychology

Biotech ETFs

Biotech ETFs May 1, 2014 David R. Kotok     We have been getting emails with questions regarding the biotech sector. The primary question is, “Is this a bubble?” Here is our view. First, we do not know that a bubble is a bubble until after the fact – after the bubble pops. What we…Read More

Category: ETFs, Investing, Think Tank

86 Years of U.S. Stock Market History

Zoom in for details. Source: Equius Partners

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets

Spec-Tech Crash Is a Good Thing

Today, I hope to explain how the crash of the speculative tech names is a positive. Last month, we noted that “High-Flying Tech Stocks Were Coming Back to Earth.” Some of the companies we reviewed then included Twitter Inc., LinkedIn Corp., Netflix Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Priceline Group Inc., Google Inc. and Facebook Inc. Since…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Technology, Valuation

The Strategy Cycle

Source: Aleph Blog   Here is a fascinating chart from David Merkel at Aleph Blog. The chart shows the sentiment cycle that arises due to performance chasing. That leads to crowded and, ultimately, unsuccessful trades. As David observes: When money is being thrown at a sub-asset class, like subprime RMBS in 2006-7, or manufactured housing…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing