Posts filed under “Investing”

The Biases of Your Favorite Market Pundits . . .

Ever wonder what motivates various pundits, strategists and fund managers to spout off about whatever it is they are yammering on about?

Step back and examine all of the various words spilled on markets. Scratch a little beneath the surface, and you quickly realize that not all participants are in a relentless search for the truth.

A few years ago, I noted that good investors have to wear many hats: One part historian, one part mathematician, one part psychiatrist, one part accountant and one part trial lawyer.

When it comes to market commentary, that last one can be especially helpful. Putting a witness’s motivations into broader context can often shed some light on their position. Why did they say that? What incentives might they have? What are they subconsciously rationalizing?

As I have noted before:

Good litigators are always skeptical, but not negative. Is that witness telling the truth? What is motivating him? Is the opposing counsel’s argument logical? Being able to answer these questions makes for a good lawyer – and a good investor . . . When it comes to investing, everyone is trying to separate you from your money. Good investing requires good judgment. Being able to recognize valuable intel versus the usual blather is a huge advantage.

So let’s play a game of cross-examining attorney.  Continues here.

 

Category: Financial Press, Hedge Funds, Investing, UnGuru

U.S. Money Managers Are Cautiously Optimistic

From Barron’s big money poll; The mix of neutral and bearish managers at 44% seems high — I’d love to see that plotted over a long period on a chart.   Source: Barron’s

Category: Investing, Psychology, Sentiment

If Stocks Go Up, Must They Always Come Down?

What’s gone up won’t always come down Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, April 20 2014     U.S. equity markets made substantial gains last year. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, the traditional benchmark for equities, was up 29.6 percent. Add in dividends, and it’s well over 30 percent. Technology and small-cap stocks did even better, with…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Why Mohamed El-Erian Left PIMCO

Here’s Why Mohamed El-Erian Left PIMCO

Source: Bloomberg

El-Erian: Gross is One of the World’s Best Investors

Source: Bloomberg

Category: Investing, Video

Hoisington: On the Fed and the Wealth Effect

Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2014 John Mauldin April 23, 2014     In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Real Estate, Think Tank

Buy This Dip?

Buy This Dip? By Peter T. Treadway April 21, 2014       The Innovation Economy begins with discovery and culminates in speculation… And so at each stage the Innovation Economy depends on sources of funding that are decoupled from concern for economic return. Throughout the history of capitalism, financial bubbles have emerged and exploded…Read More

Category: Investing, Technology, Think Tank

Start-ups Offer Financial Advice to People Who Aren’t Rich

Source: NY Times

Category: Investing, Markets, Technology

The Rich Buy Real Estate; The Poor Want Gold

If you want to know what someone’s views of society are, ask what they believe is the best long-term investment. I am fascinated each year when Gallup Poll asks Americans to choose the best option among real estate, stocks and mutual funds, gold, savings accounts and CDs, or bonds. The results are a pop psychologist’s…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Investing, Psychology, Real Estate

The Cognitive Side of Hedge Fund Investing

Larry Swedroe, research director for BAM Advisor Services LLC, noted earlier this month that total hedge fund assets under management, or AUM, reached $2.63 trillion. This represents a sizable increase, despite fund performance generously described as lackluster. The increase in assets under management led to some interesting discussions. Lots of readers had e-mailed me with…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Investing, Psychology

Asness: Stocks & Bonds Are Expensive

Cliff Asness, founder & CIO at AQR Capital Management, discusses his investment strategy, how geopolitical risks influence markets, his biggest market concern and why he believes we are not in a tech bubble on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

Long-Term Market Outlook Concerns Me Most: Asness

Bloomberg April 15

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Bloomberg’s Michael McKee and Cliff Asness, founder & CIO at AQR Capital Management, dig deeper into consumer prices for March and weigh the expense of bonds and equities on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

Stocks and Bonds Both Equally Expensive: Asness

Bloomberg April 15

Category: Investing, Valuation, Video