Posts filed under “Investing”
When discussing bull and bear markets, it sometimes helps to think of them as coming in two distinct flavors: Short-term cyclical markets and long-term secular ones. Knowing one from the other isn’t always easy.
A number of veteran market observers such as Raymond James’s Jeffrey Saut, technician Ralph Acampora, strategist Laszlo Birinyi and market historians Jeff and Yale Hirsch have made the argument that U.S. markets in 2013 entered a new secular bull market, much like the one that began in 1982. The 1982 secular bull market was preceded and followed by secular bear markets that featured lots of sharp rallies and sell offs, but netted investors nothing after more than a decade. Long-term secular markets tend to be driven by earnings, valuations and trend.
Others, such as Steve Leuthold of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management or Joseph Calhoun of Alhambra Investment Partners, disagree. They either find the data inconclusive if this is a secular market of any kind, or believe valuations don’t suggest typical secular-market returns. In other words, the stock-market gains since 2009 might represent nothing more than a big cyclical bull-market rally.
Many metrics can be used to value markets. Which should you trust? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, March 7 2015 “Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” — John Kenneth Galbraith Let’s take a look…Read More
Between a Tweet and a full column is a netherworld where ideas often get lost. Rather than let these tweener concepts slip through the cracks, now and again I like to gather them in one place (see, e.g., this) — if only to see if any discernible patterns emerge. Here’s my latest run of random ideas: 1. Is there a shortage of A-rated…Read More
I want to address the addition of Apple to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, so we have to get a few things out of the way up front. The venerable Dow isn’t really all that important. It began life on May 26, 1896, but in the last 30 or so years, it has faded in…Read More
Exactly six years ago today, the markets made their ultimate low following a 57% collapse of the S&P. I was fortunate to have been on the right side of that trade in both directions. What is most fascinating to me about that was the pushback from traders and investors — in each direction. It is revealing…Read More
> This morning in my Sunday Washington Post Business Section column, we look at the issue of how expensive U.S. stocks are. There are several ways to determine this, fraught with the potential for error. If you want to determine how cheap or expensive the stock market is, I suggest three commandments to consider: ●Thou shalt…Read More
The last refuge of scoundrels is their blind insistence that all data points must be adjusted for inflation. I was reminded of this earlier in the week when Nasdaq, after 15 long years, closed above the 5,000 mark. The immediate response from parts of the bearish contingency was to demand that the numbers take into…Read More