Posts filed under “Markets”

Does Increased M&A = Potential Market Top ?

FT: When investors are complacent, stupid deals happen

Source: FT

 

 

Last week, I pointed out some statistical errors in a chart suggesting that Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner was a sign of the market’s top. The chart had enough omissions to render it useless.

Today, I want to show you a (slightly) better version of the same idea.  Continues here

 

 

Category: M&A, Markets, Sentiment

Kiron Sarkar’s Weekly Report 19.7.14

China’s GDP rose by a better than expected +7.5% in Q2 Y/Y and was welcomed by markets. The improvement reflects the stimulus programme undertaken by the government and the sharp rise in lending, once again, as a result of government policy. The government’s actions suggests that they will continue with their stimulus programme/increased lending if…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events July 18 2014

Succinct Summations week ending July 18th Positives: 1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high. 2. NAHB home builder sentiment rose to 53 vs  the 50 expected. 3. Jobless claims hit a nine-week low, down to 302k. 4. NY manufacturing survey rose to 25.6, the highest level since ’10. 5. Jobless claims…Read More

Category: Markets

10 Tuesday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads : • Hedge funds miss out on equity surge (FT) • Investors Still Love The Thrill of the Chase (Investing Caffeine) see also Quantum math makes human irrationality more sensible (Science News) • Here’s why Larry Summers is wrong about secular stagnation (WonkBlog) • Nocera: Helping Big Companies Compete (NY Times)…Read More

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation on Week’s Events July 11 2014

Succinct Summations week ending July 11th Positives: 1. Despite a nasty opening on Wednesday, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its all-time high. 2. Japanese consumer confidence rose to 41.1 from 39.3, the highest of the year. 3. Average gas price is down to $3.64, the lowest levels since April 4. The…Read More

Category: Markets

It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit? That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, UnGuru

Conditions Favorable for a Capex Comeback

Source: Bloomberg Visual Data

Category: Corporate Management, Digital Media, Markets

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning reads (continues here): • Companies selling stocks at record pace this year (WSJ) • Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles (National Academy of Sciences) see also They discovered something in the brains of great investors that makes them do so much better (Business Insider) • Ray Dalio…Read More

Category: Markets

What to Do in a Market Correction

Things to try in a market correction: • Respond emotionally, giving in to your lizard brain. It does a good job of keeping you alive, so you might as well hand over management of your portfolio to it. • Rely on your gut instinct to lead you out of trouble. After all, your instincts helped…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology

I Love the 80′s: 1982 Low vs 2009 Low

click for ginormnous chart Source: The Chart Store   “I Love the ’80s” was a BBC television miniseries that examined the world through the lens of 1980s pop culture. (VH1’s riff on the show can be found here). I bring up the ’80s because of a wonderful chart from Ron Griess who runs The Chart…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets