Posts filed under “Markets”
The past few weeks, I have been arguing against the notion that we are in a bubble.
Let’s look at the other side of the argument: What is the (rational) bear case? We know stocks are no longer cheap, and this bull — already up 160%+ — is on the high end of the range.
What are the legitimate bear arguments?
This is an open thread — make your best case!
Succinct Summations week ending November 15, 2013. Positives: 1. NFP came in at 203k, as unemployment rate dropped to 7% — the lowest level since 2008; 2. Q3 GDP came in at 3.6% v expectations of a 3.1% gain; 3. New home sales grew 25.4% in October, rising at an annual rate of 444k. 4….Read More
click for ginormous table Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. In this morning’s discussion about defining bubbles, a reader made an interesting a posteriori statement: You can tell a bubble after a market has “dived much lower.” That sent me hunting for some data as to how often markets actually dive. This table is the result…Read More
Source: 361 Capital This chart comes to us via Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital. I find it provides great context for the current markets, especially given the amount of bubble chatter we hear these days. How common are double-digit equity gains? How often do we see markets up 20 percent or more in a…Read More
“It’s important to choose not who you think is the prettiest girl, but who the judges think is the prettiest girl.” ~ John Maynard Keynes When I look back on 2013, the primary capital markets theme that comes to my mind is the “don’t fight the Fed” investing mantra. But with this already at the…Read More
I am in Brussels today (which I suspect will mean futures are down) for this event: Should be fun!
Good Sunday morning . . . Pour a hot cup of black, pull up a chair, and enjoy some brain stimulation: • Inside the mind of Marc Andreessen (Fortune) • How to Lower Your 2013 Tax Bill (WSJ) • Is your boss an Empty Suit ? (Farnam Street) see also Sorry, Folks, Rich People Actually Don’t ‘Create The…Read More
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events: Positives: 1) The Fed’s recent emphasis on forward guidance seems to be working as the 2 yr note auction was good with the bid to cover at the best level since April. It’s the long end of the curve now that is doing the tightening for the Fed; 2) Building…Read More