Posts filed under “Markets”

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 1/30/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 30rd


1. Weekly jobless claims fell 43,000 to 265,000, the lowest since 2000!
2. Apple reported a record breaking quarter as it sold 74.5 million iPhones
3. Personal consumption came in at 4.3% vs 4% expected.
4. Chicago PMI came in at 59.4 vs the 57.5 expected.
5.  U of Mich consumer confidence came in at 98.1, a hair below expectations but still strong and up from 93.6 in December.


1. US Q4 real GDP came in at 2.6% annualized vs 3% expected.
2. Durable goods fell 3.4% m/o/m, below expectations and down from the 2.1% decline in November.
3. The S&P 500 had back-to-back down months for the first time since 2012
4. Yields keep falling around here and around the globe; 30 year hits lowest yields ever.
5. Earnings season has not been kind to some of the biggest companies, including Caterpillar, Microsoft and Qualcomm.
6. Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at -4.4 vs 3 expected.
7. Germany, Europe’s largest economy fell 0.3% m/o/m, the first negative print since 2009.
8. The S&P 500 has moved in a range greater than 1% in all but two trading days in January, volatility is back.
9. Pending home sales fell 3.7% m/o/m




Category: Markets

The Increasingly Unequal States of America

The Increasingly Unequal States of America Source: EPI

Category: Markets

The Year in VIX and Volatility

Terrific graphic from Bill Luby at VIX and More looking at the various potential drivers of volatility:   click for monster chart Source: VIX and More

Category: Derivatives, Markets, Technical Analysis

Look Out Below, fill-in-the-blank edition!

Markets were under intense pressure earlier today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 400 points. Most indexes were down 2 percent or so around the globe before recovering some of the losses. As is often the case during big market swings, numerous narratives attempt to explain the causes of the market turmoil. Consider…Read More

Category: Earnings, Economy, Markets

Look Out Below, _____ edition!

    Whats driving the market lower today: European softness, Grexit, Microsoft miss, Cat comments, or something else entirely? Often, the most accurate answer is we don’t know . . .   More on this later    

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1/23/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 23rd Positives: 1. ECB to start a QE of their own; 60 billion a month until September 2016 and markets around the world explode higher 2. Housing starts rose 4.4% in December to an annualized pace of 1.09mm coming in much stronger than the 1.2% and 1.02mm expected. 3. The…Read More

Category: Markets

As goes early-January, so goes Nothing

Salil Mehta is a popular statistician and risk strategist, who has developed a unique method to teach quantitative techniques. He blogs at Statistical Ideas. ~~~ We’ve started the year with a sizable downward market pattern, which is making market participants think in ill-advised ways.  Eight of the first eleven trading days (S&P 500) were negative.  If…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Markets

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (1/16/15):

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events Positives: 1) The SNB cries mercy and comes to terms with the fact that it can’t win a currency battle with the ECB. The Swiss people have just dramatically improved the purchasing power of their savings. Also, while highly disruptive to economies and markets in the short term, maybe the…Read More

Category: Markets

Cornucopia: Stockpiles of Foodstuffs

Nice chart from WSJ about the stockpiles of foodstuffs around the world:     Source: WSJ

Category: Commodities, Markets

Succinct Summations of Week’s Event’s 1/9/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 9th Positives: 1. The U.S. Economy added 252k jobs in December. 2. Unemployment rate fell to 5.6%; Revisions to the jobs report added 50k jobs to each of the prior past two months. 3. U.S. consumer confidence jumped to a seven-year high; 4. ADP’s December private payrolls rose by 241k….Read More

Category: Markets