Posts filed under “Markets”
Succinct Summations week ending March 28th, 2014
1. Rates continue to fall in this so-called “rising-rate environment”
2. Despite pockets of carnage, the S&P 500 is still less than 2% away from ALL-TIME HIGHS.
3. Personal income and spending both rose 0.3%.
4. New home sales fell 3.3% m/o/m in February — better than the expected 4.9% drop.
5. Of the largest financial institutions, 25 of 30 got the “all clear” from the fed to return cash to shareholders.
6. January home prices rose 13.2%, the 11th straight month of double-digit gains
7. U.S. March consumer confidence rose to 82.3 v expectations of 78.5.
8. U.S. durable goods rose 2.2% in February, better than the 0.8% expected gain.
9. Core PCE came in at 1.1% in January, well below the feds targeted 2%.
10. Euro-zone composite PMI came in at 53.2, the ninth-straight month of economic expansion.
1. February pending home sales fell 0.8% m/o/m vs 0.2% expected. (Down 8th straight month)
2. The Richmond fed fell to -7, dow from -6 in February.
3. HSBC Chinese flash PMI fell to 48.1, an eight-month low.
4. U.S. manufacturing PMI slowed to 55.5 from 57.1 and below expectations of 56.5
5. U.K. inflation fell to its lowest level in over 4 years, disinflation is not healthy.
6. Core capex rose 0.2% in February, below the 0.3% estimated.
7. Momentum names have been crushed the past 2 weeks, Twitter down nearly 40%, FB, AMZN etc following suit. (Note this is a sentiment positive)
8. UMich consumer confidence fell to 80, from 81.6 in February.
The Dow Jones’s 22,000 Point Mistake Bryan Taylor, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Global Financial Data One of the long-term components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been IBM. The company was originally added to the Dow Jones Industrials on March 26, 1932 in a reshuffle involving eight stocks including Coca-Cola, Nash Motors (later American Motors)…Read More
It’s a cold and miserable Monday in what was supposed to be spring. Winter was supposed to have ended last week, but it refuses to depart peaceably. I don’t know about you, but I am sick of it. I am going to use the nasty weather as an excuse to vent. What follows is a…Read More
Overview The (unintended, I believe) remark by Mrs Yellen that the FED could raise interest rates 6 months following the end of the tapering programme has had ripple effects worldwide. US bond yields (the 10 year is yielding 2.78%) and the US$ have appreciated, with the Yen and the Euro lower. The weaker Euro (around…Read More
“It is after a trend has been reversed that the full effect of the preceding excesses is felt.” -George Soros For the last 5+ years we have seen a massive attempt by global central banks to prop up asset prices. The Federal Reserve has spearheaded the effort, increasing their balance sheet from less than $1…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending March 21st, 2014 Positives: 1. S&P 500 made new all-time highs, despite Taper and tuning out noise continues to work. 2. U.S. factory output rose 0.8% in February, the biggest gain since August. 3. Energy prices fell for the first time in 3 months. 4. Building permits jumped 7.7% to 1.01M…Read More
Here are some of my favorite tweets from the week: The Fed: Hawkish? Hardly! Spelled with an “I.” What would a FOMC meeting be without a limerick? My own contribution to the FOMC noise. Markets Reasons to sell since March 2009. Spot what’s wrong with this chart. Continues here
Bubbles and Manias Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University Josh Brown reminded us yesterday of this terrific chart from Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor in the department of global studies and geography Department at Hofstra University. Of course, the key question is: Where are we on the chart? My view…Read More
The Worst Bear Market in History Bryan Taylor, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Global Financial Data, March 14, 2014 Which country has the dubious distinction of suffering the worst bear market in history? To answer this question, we ignore countries where the government closed down the stock exchange, leaving investors with nothing,…Read More