Posts filed under “Markets”

Vanguard: Quantifying the impact of chasing fund performance

Vanguard: Quantifying the impact of chasing fund performance

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip

Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip Amy Higgins and Randal Verbrugge 8.11.14     Recently, the overall rate of inflation has risen, owing partly to inflation in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). But many wonder if the current rate of OER inflation, which is now at levels not seen since 2009, is…Read More

Category: Markets

How Greenspan Became the ex-Maestro

On this day in 1987, Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. This anniversary allows us to take a quick look at what followed over the next two decades. As it turned out, it was one of the most interesting and, to be blunt, weirdest tenures ever for a Fed chairman. This was…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Markets, Really, really bad calls

SKEW-VIX & The Fog of War

SKEW-VIX & The Fog of War David R. Kotok, August 10, 2014     This commentary will include answers to some questions from readers about the SKEW-VIX ratio and why it is important. Here are two issue notes before we address those questions. First, our alarm about the ratcheting up of military action falls into…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank, War/Defense

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 8/8/14

Succinct Summations week ending August 8th Positives: 1. AAII bearish sentiment rose to its highest levels since August 2013, people still are so quick to call a top for this bull market. 2. Chinese exports increased by 14.5% in July, the biggest increase since April 2013 3. Initial jobless claims came in at 289k vs…Read More

Category: Markets

Structural Bull Market ?

Source: Raymond James Research       This morning, I made note of the difference between secular bull and bear markets. I described secular bear markets as being longer-term, characterized by strong rallies, vicious sell-offs and earnings contractions. Secular bull markets include an investor willingness to pay more and more for the same dollar of…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets

Halfway through the Correction

Last month, we discussed how we might be on the verge of a correction. We also noted the futility of trying to time the start and finish of such events. What actually matters is how you react — or overreact. As my colleague Josh Brown has observed, “since the end of World War II (1945),…Read More

Category: Markets

Structural Secular Markets

Source: Raymond James Research

Category: Markets

Why The Ukraine Headline Does Not Pass The Sherlock Holmes Test

I mentioned on Tuesday afternoon that I did not believe the market weakness was due to Ukraine Russia tensions. From Art Cashin, UBS head of floor trading, and a 5o-year veteran of the NYSE floor, expresses the sentiment much more eloquently than I:   One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other – Or…Read More

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls

Last month, I spilled a considerable number of pixels explaining why Rupert Murdoch’s Time Warner bid had no significance to whether or not this is a market top. My short list included complaints of cherry picked data that somehow ignored most of Murdoch’s M&A activity over the past half century; a laughably small sample size…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading