Posts filed under “Markets”

Weekendend Homework: Sources & Research on Shiller’s CAPE

I have a fairly long piece coming out looking at CAPE, but for those of you interested, here are the research and resources I used:

Fixing the Shiller CAPE: Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau   PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS December 13, 2013 @Jesse_Livermore

An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E, Clifford S. Asness, Ph.D., AQR’s Absolute Return Fund. Q3 2012 letter

CAPE and math Salil Mehta, Statistical Ideas, August 20, 2014

Shiller CAPE Market Valuation: Terrible For Market Timing, But Valuable For Long-Term Retirement Planning Michael Kitces, August 6th, 2014

If You Used Valuation, You Would Be Out of Stocks Since 1993, Mebane Faber Research, June 10th, 2014

Don’t put faith in Cape crusaders Jeremy Siegel FT, August 19, 2013

Leaving CAPE Town Joshua M Brown Reformed Broker, January 12th, 2014

In defence of the Shiller p/e Buttonwood, The Economist May 18th 2011

Who’s Afraid of Shiller’s CAPE? Erik Kobayashi-Solomon, Y-Charts August 1, 2014

Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives August 6, 2014

A CAPE Crusader: A Defence Against the Dark Arts, James Montier GMO  2/25/2014

CAPE Fear Mebane Faber Research, December 18th, 2013

Understanding the CAPE Debate: The History of 24 or More Keith C. Goddard, CFA, Channing S. Smith, CFA, and Monty L. Butts ValueWalk, February 25, 2014

A Cautionary Note About Robert Shiller’s CAPE by Stephen E. Wilcox AAII Journal, September 2011

Taking Stock of the S&P 500 Index Michael Rawson, Morningstar, 01-10-14

Shiller CAPE Peaches Smell Like BS Wade Slome Investing Caffeine, June 14, 2014

Shiller’s CAPE – Is It Really Just B.S. Lance Roberts 18 June 2014

Improving Risk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies by Kenneth R. Solow, CFP®, CLU, ChFC; Michael E. Kitces, CFP®, CLU, ChFC, RHU, REBC; and Sauro Locatelli

Is the Stock Market Cheap? Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives August 5, 2014

The CAPE Ratio and a Range of Historical Outcomes Ben Carlson A Wealth of Common Sense, April 29, 2014

That’s your homework reading for the weekend


Category: Markets, Philosophy, Valuation

Economic Indicators Dashboard

Source: Russell Investments

Category: Economy, Markets

Get Ready for the Shanghai Composite Break Out

  China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

5th Longest S&P500 Streak

For data buffs: Stephen Suttmeier of BAML points put that this is the 5th-longest S&P 500 streak above the 200-day MA going back to 1928. “The S&P 500 Index moved above its 200-day moving average on November 19, 2012 and has not closed below it on a daily basis for 21 months. The record is…Read More

Category: Markets

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

Why should investors care about geopolitics?

One of the concerns for investors is how markets keep powering higher despite all of the geopolitical turmoil: The grinding Syrian civil war that has spilled into Iraq, the clash between Israel and Gaza, the Crimea annexation and now the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. That thinking gets the issue precisely backward. The proper question…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, War/Defense

Volume of Technology Deals

Source: US Technology Deal Insights Q2 2014 Update, PWC

Category: Markets, Technology

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 8.15.14

Succinct Summations Week Ending August 15th Positives: 1. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% on the week and is just 1.5% off the all-time highs. 2. NFIB small business optimism rose to 95.7, up from95 previously. 3. U.K. unemployment fell to 6.4%, the lowest level since ’08. 4. Consumer confidence in Japan rose to an 8-month…Read More

Category: Markets

Flashback: Dark Days On Wall Street . . .

On this date 32 years ago, the New York Times included the following paragraph in an article titled, “Dark Days On Wall Street.” In the past two weeks, all the market averages have plunged to new lows as Wall Street, beset by cruel economic news from all sides, has time after time been unable to…Read More

Category: Markets