Posts filed under “Markets”
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis, the quarter of onset is 2007Q3.
“It probably will come as a big surprise to most people that employment is actually doing better and the stock market is doing worse than the typical post credit crisis recovery.” So say Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. They have been updating a chart that found its origins in an IMF report featuring a study of major banking crises done by academics Carmine Reinhart and Ken Rogoff.
The nearby chart, four major economic indicators – Employment CPI, interest rates, and stocks – compare this recovery versus the average of 15 prior financial crises. Much of the anecdotal criticisms of this recovery have been that employment has been lagging while the stock market has run too far. But as you can see in the updated IMF chart, United States employment is actually above the average post crisis recovery.
This week in 1958: LIFE Magazine highlights a strange new phenomenon: The public is investing in the stock market as never before. “On the average,” reports LIFE, “500,000 new customers a year have been getting into the market and 8.6 million Americans now own some kind of common or preferred stock…. To an extent which…Read More
Paul Macrae Montgomery, best known as the originator of the Time Magazine Cover Indicator, and for popularizing the Hemline Indicator of the stock market, died this weekend. He was 72. I was fortunate to have had several conversations with Mongomery over the years. He was humble and soft spoken but he took delight in…Read More
Mr Draghi has come to the rescue yet again. The cut in all of the ECB’s policy rates by 10 bps, combined with an asset backed securities (ABS) and covered bond purchase programme, was more than the market expected. The decision was agreed by a “comfortable majority”. Mr Draghi confirmed that whilst the ECB did…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending September 5th Positives: 1. ECB lowers rates gives further clarity in its attempts to encourage a greater level of small and medium sized business lending. He also gets another leg lower in the euro via another cut in short rates and by adding covered bonds to its menu of asset purchases….Read More
The longest bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 lasted 9 ½ years (actually 2,388 trading days). The current bull market (which began on 3/09/09) has lasted 1,375 trading days (through Friday 8/22/14), or 1,013 trading days short of the longest bull since 1950. During the final 1,013 trading days of its 9 ½…Read More
Most of what we see and hear about how to invest comes from either the fund industry or the financial media – both of which have their own agendas. This landmark documentary is an attempt to redress the balance.
Nine months in the making, How to Win the Loser’s Game aims to provide ordinary investors with the information they need to achieve their investment goals. It includes contributions from some of the biggest names and brightest minds in the investing world.
It’s being released in ten weekly, stand-alone parts, followed by the full-length, 80-minute film. Please share these videos with family, friends and colleagues, and help us to build a better, fairer and more transparent investment industry for all.
The Declining U.S. Reliance on Foreign Investors Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui Liberty Street Economics, August 20, 2014 The United States has been borrowing from the rest of the world since the mid-1980s. From 2000 to 2008, this borrowing averaged over $600 billion per year, which translates into U.S. spending exceeding income by almost…Read More