Posts filed under “Markets”
I wanted to address some of the historical comparos as to why the market has been moving higher, despite what is obviosuly (at least to me) news that has a negative economic impact.
From Friday’s column, a bonus ubiq-cerpt™:
Many commentators have noted the market’s impressive resilience in the face of adversity. This is not historically unprecedented. When the great San Francisco earthquake hit in April 18, 1906, it took the markets a few weeks to register the costs and economic impact. By May, the markets had fallen 10%. But the full impact was not well understood until the following year, leading to the Panic of 1907, and the Dow took a nearly 50% hit during that period. History buffs will recall the Panic and its aftermath were the impetus for the creation of the Federal Reserve System. (This paper details the economic impact of 1906 Earthquake.)
For those who note that communications in 1906 were somewhat slower than they are in modern times, consider a more recent example: The 1973 OPEC oil embargo. For several weeks, markets all but ignored the issue, as U.S. stock markets traded sideways. Investors eventually recognized the enormity of what the embargo meant to the U.S., and stocks sold off.
The key to each of these events was not the speed of communications. Rather, it was the gradual comprehension by investors of the enormity of what occurred. Investors are emotional creatures who often react to visceral evidence, rather than relying on contemplative analysis. That may be why an act of nature like Katrina is perceived so differently than a man-made disaster, such as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The immediate reaction to what amounted to a declaration of war was a fierce selloff once the markets re-opened post Sept. 11. Katrina, while an extraordinarily strong hurricane, was merely part of the ordinary course of weather events. Comprehending the differing economic impacts — and shifting one’s viewpoint accordingly — is hardly an easy task.
This weeks Barron’s has an interesting chart from Sy Harding. If you are unfamiliar with Harding’s work, have a look at his prescient 1999 book, “Riding the Bear: How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market.” (Spend the $1.49 on used copy — its well worth it). Harding suggests that: “UNLESS I’M LOOKING AT the…Read More
The previous chart reveals the long standing secular moves of the markets; What’s an investor to do during one of the long periods of weakness? One answer is to learn to be more nimble, and trade the cyclical markets. > Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1966 – 1982 click for larger chart data for chart courtesy…Read More
Yet another look (see prior takes here and here) at the concept of market cycles. The past century shows alternating Bullish and Bearish phases, secular periods each lasting for an extended time (between 10 to 20 years). > Dow Jones Industrials, 1903 – 2004 Note that markets are up slightly for 2005 since this chart…Read More
Good round up from Dow Jones:
Over a week after making
landfall, the broad economic fallout from Hurricane Katrina continues to
unfold. Economists are downgrading their third quarter growth forecasts for
the U.S. economy and not all think that rebuilding in the wake of the storm
will bring things back in the fourth quarter. Markets have stabilized
however, taking their cue from the price of oil and other refined energy
products, which have been hit by a major international effort to release
emergency energy reserves in an attempt to alleviate a supply crunch.
Estimates of the economic loss from the hurricane exceed $100 billion, with
the Senate’s top Democrat putting it closer to $150 billion.
are some of the main market and economic impacts:
There is a terrific Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004) for sale at the Minyanville.com gallery. Its along the same concept of a chart we did back in 2003 — only this one includes P/E ratios, which is a very instructive addition to the graph: click for an enormous chart: “Officially licensed and designed by Minyanville’s own…Read More