Posts filed under “Markets”

Chart of the Week: U Michigan Sentiment Index Gives Market Warning

"Such steep and widespread declines in confidence have
typically triggered recessions," though a recession is not
"pre-ordained,"
said Richard Curtin, the director of U Mich consumer
surveys. The drop paralleled the decline following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in
1990.

U Michigan Sentiment Index Gives Market Warning
click for larger chart
Sentiment_crash
Source: Robert McHugh

Some Traders find a correlation between consumer sentiment
and Dow Industrials’ price movements. Robert McHugh states that “often, the sentiment index and equity prices move
contemporaneously, so we do not benefit from foresight. On occasion, we do get
an early warning as the sentiment index leads prices.” We will see if this
recent drop presages another.


Random Items:

It’s Fourth and Long for Stocks

Gross: Short-term rates near peak

Pump panic, gold glee

Overcoming Market Panic (Brett Steenbarger)

Silicon Valley Apple Roundtable: The Next Generation

Katrina Burst More Than New Orleans’s Old Levees

The Flying Mobulas of the Sea of Cortez



Quote of the Day:

"Any activity becomes creative when
the doer cares about doing it right, or better."    
~John Updike

Category: Markets, Psychology, Retail

Sometimes, There is No Pony

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Trading

Chart of the Week: DJIA Making Higher Lows

Category: Markets

Delayed Onset: Some Historical Comparisons

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Presidential Cycles

This weeks Barron’s has an interesting chart from Sy Harding. If you are unfamiliar with Harding’s work, have a look at his prescient 1999 book, “Riding the Bear: How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market.” (Spend the $1.49 on used copy — its well worth it). Harding suggests that: “UNLESS I’M LOOKING AT the…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Sector Analysis

Category: Investing, Markets

DJIA 1966 – 1982

The previous chart reveals the long standing secular moves of the markets; What’s an investor to do during one of the long periods of weakness? One answer is to learn to be more nimble, and trade the cyclical markets. > Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1966 – 1982 click for larger chart data for chart courtesy…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Market Cycles: 100 Year DJIA

Yet another look (see prior takes here and here) at the concept of market cycles. The past century  shows alternating Bullish and Bearish phases, secular periods each lasting for an extended time (between 10 to 20 years). > Dow Jones Industrials, 1903 – 2004 Note that markets are up slightly for 2005 since this chart…Read More

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets

Katrina Lowers Year End Expectations

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Chart of the Week: NYSE Making New Highs

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis