Posts filed under “Markets”
“Data are the most valuable commodity to any investor. Before anyone can make a statement like "The market went past its 200-day moving average, and this is a bullish sign," one must examine the data and test the statement to see if the results”
Have at it:
Daily market data
Daily open, high, low, close and volume data on any stock in the U.S. Markets
For “slightly cleaner data at a slight expense,” James recommends Qcharts — which also includes the Tick indicator, and the Arms Index, as well as an indicator that tracks the premium between futures and cash (symbol: $prem).
the Fred II database
The National Bureau of Economic Research
(Maintained by Yale professor Ivo Welch)
CSFB/Tremont index – Hedge fund strategies
Hedge fund returns
Global Financial Data
spot-price data for commodities
Nasdaq 100 changes
(There’s an interesting study on S&P 500 additions/deletions here)
Russell 2000 additions/deletions
Chapter 11 bankruptcy data
Last, Art Prices
Once again, guest poster Rob Fraim delivers some market related humor:
Back in the 19th century when I started in this business I had to go to the company home office for several weeks of training. On one of the final days all of the rookie brokers were required to make a presentation to the class – a speech regarding the business, goals, aspirations, motivation, blah, blah.
“Since so much of the new-guy training back at the firm where I started in the business was about sales stuff (rather than teaching us anything about investing) I wrote a song. I had my guitar with me and so instead of giving a yada-yada speech I sang my song.”
Cold Caller Blues lyrics:
This may have gotten overlooked last week — if you follow currency, sentiment, or precious metals, its an interview worth reading.
Let me once again mention that the Online WSJ is well worth $40 a year — and it also includes access to Barron’s.
Here’s an excerpt of the interview:
Gold prices have surged 50% since early 2002 to more than $450 an ounce, and some market watchers are brazenly slapping a $1,000 price target on the metal for the near future.
That crystal-ball forecast seems heady. But John Bridges, a senior gold analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. since 1995 and author of "The Golden Goose" newsletter, says gold has already hit that level — even passed it — when adjusted for inflation. But he still has "problems with gold as an investment."
And it’s not all about the flailing dollar. Other factors, some real (supply-and-demand) and some eccentric (Indian thoughts of the afterlife) are playing a role, says Joseph Foster, portfolio manager of the $290 million Van Eck International Investors Gold fund, the first of its kind in the U.S. that dates back to 1956. He calls gold "the ultimate form of currency."
Can gold keep shining? Is $1,000 an ounce a realistic target? And how does inflation factor in? Messrs. Bridges and Foster answer our questions.
* * *
The Wall Street Journal Online: Gold is up 14% since late 2003, but the Amex Gold Bug index (a basket of gold stocks) is down 11% from a year ago. Why hasn’t the price of gold filtered into the price of many gold-oriented stocks?
Mr. Bridges: We’re positive on gold as hedge against the weaker dollar. Even if the dollar does recover, the strain on the world’s economic system by these swings in currencies suggests having gold as insurance isn’t such a bad idea.
Gold producers are suffering quite significantly from higher energy prices. Diesel has become quite a big part of some mining operating costs — as much as 20%. Then you also have the strength of the resource currencies — the Australian and Canadian dollars and the South African rand. Even the Peruvian sol is appreciating against the dollar. A lot of these big diversified miners have operations in these countries, and that’s affecting their operations.
Mr. Foster: We went through a severe correction back in
April and May, for both gold and gold shares. They were down
substantially. If you look at the performance since then through the
end of November, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver index (XAU) is up
37%. Gold prices are up 20%. So you look over that longer time frame,
and the shares have done fairly well. They’ve significantly