Posts filed under “Markets”

Consumer Spending Slowdowns and Bear Markets

Yesterday (via Doug Kass), I noted that the Consumer had grown increasingly levered. Why is this so important? Because of the relationship between Consumer Spending slowdowns and Bear Markets:

Bear markets begin when growth in real consumer spending (PCE) peaks and begins to slow

click for larger graphic


Source: Joseph H. Ellis, Ahead of the Curve

Ellis notes: 

The relationship between economic slowdowns (led by downtrends in year-over-year consumer spending) and bear markets (vertical yellow bars) is remarkably consistent, though not infallible, over many cycles. Most bear markets begin (see circles) when the year-over-year rate of growth in consumer spending is peaking, and investor and general business optimism are at their highest! Considerable courage is required to reduce investments at such times.

Category: Consumer Spending, Investing, Markets

The “Uncertainty” Discount

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Markets

Once Fed Hikes Stop, Markets Fall

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets

It’s (Still) a Small (Cap) World

Category: Investing, Markets

The Real Estate Soufflé

Category: Economy, Markets, Real Estate

The Speculative Sap is Rising

Category: Markets, Psychology

The Astonishingly Inefficient Market

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Top Ticking Real Estate is Different Than Stocks

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Real Estate, Trading

Hot or Not? Sector Analysis and the Tipping Point for Oil

Category: Commodities, Markets

Tops from around the World

Category: Markets